TLDR
- Trump directed agencies to identify and release government files on aliens, UAPs, and UFOs
- Former President Obama sparked the move by saying “aliens are real” on a podcast
- Prediction market odds of alien confirmation before 2027 jumped from ~11% to over 26%
- Trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi reached millions of dollars after Trump’s announcement
- The Pentagon said in 2024 it found “no evidence” the U.S. government had encountered alien life
President Donald Trump announced Thursday he would direct federal agencies to release government files on aliens, UAPs, and UFOs. The announcement triggered a sharp rise in prediction market betting on alien disclosure.
Trump posted on Truth Social that he would direct the Secretary of War and other departments to begin identifying and releasing files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena, and UFOs.
The announcement came after former President Barack Obama said on a podcast last week that “aliens are real.” Trump accused Obama of revealing classified information aboard Air Force One Thursday.
“He’s not supposed to be doing that,” Trump told reporters. When asked if he believed aliens were real himself, Trump said: “Well, I don’t know if they’re real or not.”
Trump called the subject “highly complex, but extremely interesting and important” in his Truth Social post.
This is not Trump’s first engagement with the UAP topic. During his first term, he acknowledged being briefed on UFO sightings reported by Navy pilots.
Other former presidents have also shown interest. Bill Clinton admitted he once sent federal agents to investigate Nevada’s Area 51 military base.
Prediction Markets React
On Polymarket, the contract “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” jumped from roughly 11% to the low-20s within hours of Trump’s announcement. Total trading volume on that contract approached over $4.3 million.
Kalshi saw a similar move. Odds rose from 17.3% on February 19 to 28.4%, with trading volume reaching $4.8 million.
Both platforms require a positive resolution where government officials formally acknowledge that aliens exist within the year.
Traders had remained largely skeptical before Trump’s post, citing the absence of concrete policy action or verified evidence.
Government Record on UFOs
The U.S. Congress has held several hearings with whistleblowers and military personnel about UAP sightings. Former Air Force officer David Grusch testified that the U.S. government recovered “non-human biologics” from crash sites.
Despite those claims, the Pentagon published a report in 2024 stating there was “no evidence” the U.S. government had ever encountered alien life.
The report concluded that most UFO sightings were likely ordinary objects misidentified by observers.
Obama, in his podcast appearance, also denied the existence of underground bases at Area 51.
Trump said his planned declassification could help get Obama “out of trouble” over the classified information accusation.
As of the latest data, Kalshi’s alien confirmation odds sit at 28.4% and Polymarket trading volume on the contract has exceeded $4.3 million.
