TLDR
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll found most Americans oppose betting on US elections through prediction markets.
- About 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans said they are firmly against election wagers.
- 65% of respondents oppose bets on US military action, and 63% oppose contracts on government decisions.
- An August Reuters investigation found over 150 Polymarket International accounts may have used insider knowledge on military matters.
- Kalshi and Polymarket say they monitor suspicious activity and take action against offending accounts.
Most Americans do not want to see bets placed on US elections, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. The survey also found strong opposition to wagers on military operations and government decisions.
The results come as prediction market platforms try to grow their user base. The findings suggest that commercial success does not mean the public supports turning political events into bets.
Poll Shows Opposition Across Party Lines
The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 5. It found that voters from both major parties opposed election betting.
About 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans said they were firmly against it. The opposition was not limited to elections.
Around 65% of respondents opposed wagers on US military action. Another 63% were against contracts tied to government decisions.
Support for these markets was low. Only 8% backed military-related wagers, and just 9% were fine with bets on government announcements.
Political betting drew wide attention during the 2024 presidential election. Bettors placed hundreds of millions of dollars on event contracts tied to the race.
Since then, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded. They now offer contracts on a broad range of political, economic, and sporting events.
This growth has led to disputes over who should regulate the sector. Several state gambling regulators have challenged sports-related contracts, saying they are the same as gambling and should follow state betting laws.
The platforms are fighting these challenges in court. They argue that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sole authority over prediction markets.
Insider Trading Concerns Grow
Many Americans feel uneasy about putting a price on decisions linked to national security. Some lawmakers share these concerns.
They worry that government workers or political insiders could use secret information to make profitable trades. Market positions could also reveal sensitive developments before they become public.
An August Reuters investigation found that more than 150 Polymarket International accounts may have used insider knowledge on military matters to win trades. Betting scandals tied to US involvement in Venezuela and Iran have added to the worries.
Many experts are concerned that current safeguards may not be enough to stop abuse. Both Kalshi and Polymarket say they monitor suspicious activity and work with authorities.
The companies also say they take action against accounts that break the rules. For example, Kalshi banned former Republican Representative George Santos.
Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to settle government allegations involving manipulative trading. Even with these steps, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows many Americans remain unsure the sector can prevent manipulation.
