TLDR
- ASIC updated its Moneysmart website to warn Australians against using offshore prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Commissioner Alan Kirkland compared prediction markets to gambling, saying users lose important consumer protections.
- ASIC pointed to insider trading risks, citing the CFTC’s $35,000 fine against former U.S. Congressman George Santos.
- Polymarket was blocked in Australia in August 2025 after breaching the Interactive Gambling Act.
- ASIC also warned that at least 68% of retail investors lose money trading CFDs.
Australia’s financial watchdog has told citizens to avoid offshore prediction markets. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission, known as ASIC, says no operator holds a license to run these platforms in the country.
The regulator posted new guidance on its Moneysmart consumer website this week. It warns that users face real financial risks when betting on sites based outside Australia.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland spoke directly about the issue. He said the legal label doesn’t matter much when the outcome looks the same.
“Whatever the legal definition of a prediction market, let’s just focus on the substance and in all practical terms, it is akin to gambling,” Kirkland told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Two platforms dominate this space globally. Kalshi is valued at roughly $22 billion, while Polymarket sits near $15 billion.
Kirkland explained that trading on these sites means dealing with companies overseas. That means users miss out on protections tied to Australian financial law.
Insider Trading Concerns Grow
ASIC flagged insider trading as a major worry. The agency pointed to a case involving former U.S. Congressman George Santos.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined Santos $35,000 for placing a bet tied to his own attendance at a presidential address. Kirkland said this case may not be rare.
“They’re potentially just the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “We really don’t know how much insider trading might actually be happening on these platforms.”
Another case involves a U.S. soldier accused of betting on the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. The soldier was reportedly tied to a covert operation linked to that same outcome.
Kirkland said these situations are hard to catch. Overseas regulators often struggle to enforce insider trading rules across borders.
Australia has already taken action against one platform. The Australian Communications and Media Authority ordered internet providers to block Polymarket in August 2025.
That decision came after regulators found Polymarket had broken the Interactive Gambling Act. Reports also showed the platform paid social media influencers to promote election betting markets.
Polymarket later blocked Australian users itself. Kalshi has not been added to the blocked list, though its own user agreement names Australia as a restricted country.
A local firm called FEX Global has pitched a regulated prediction market for Australia. It would be the first of its kind if approved.
CFDs Also Under Scrutiny
ASIC widened its warning to cover contracts for difference, or CFDs. These let investors bet on price moves without owning the actual asset.
Margin calls can force traders to add money quickly. Providers can also close losing positions without much warning.
CFDs are legal in Australia when offered by licensed providers. Even so, ASIC says at least 68% of retail investors lose money trading them.
The agency also compared prediction markets to binary options. A past ASIC review found that about 75% of retail clients lost money on that product.
Australia already has some of the highest gambling losses per person in the world. ASIC’s latest warning adds prediction markets and CFDs to a growing list of products under closer watch.
For now, ASIC says every offshore prediction market operates outside the country’s consumer protection rules. That leaves Australian users without formal ways to resolve disputes or recover losses if something goes wrong.
