TLDR Kalshi prediction market traders give Trump a 70% chance of impeachment before January 1, 2028, with over $1.7 million in trading volume on the contract. Short-term odds remain low, with only a 4% chance of impeachment before June 2026 and 13% before January 2027. Traders are also betting on which world leaders might leave power before the end of 2026, with Cuba’s Díaz-Canel topping the list at 31%. Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to grow as tools for tracking political expectations in real time. Despite the high long-term probability, the numbers reflect trader sentiment and can shift…
Author: Maisie Morrison
TLDR Polymarket announced a partnership with Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to build an AI surveillance platform for its prediction markets The system will use the Vergence AI engine to monitor trading activity and detect suspicious patterns in sports markets The platform will include trade monitoring, anomaly detection, prohibited trader screening, and compliance reporting tools The move comes after multiple insider trading incidents on prediction markets, including trades tied to U.S. military and political events The Coalition for Prediction Markets, which includes Kalshi and Coinbase, has publicly distanced itself from Polymarket over past controversies Polymarket has teamed up with Palantir…
TLDR Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban prediction market contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and death The bill would remove the CFTC’s discretion and write permanent prohibitions into federal law Representative Mike Levin noted over $500 million was wagered on the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran Senator Richard Blumenthal introduced a separate bill targeting fraud and insider trading in prediction markets Blumenthal’s bill would also return some oversight power to individual states Democrats in Congress are taking aim at prediction markets with two new bills that would ban contracts tied to war, death,…
TLDR Nearly a third of Gen Z is using or considering crypto, sports betting, and prediction markets to reach financial goals, per Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 study. 80% of Gen Z investors in these assets believe they offer a faster path to wealth than traditional methods. Only 32% of Polymarket traders have turned any profit, with 92% of winners earning $1,000 or less. Despite rising financial nihilism, the share of Americans feeling financially secure rose 6 points year-over-year to 50%. Inflation remains the top barrier to financial security for 42% of Americans, ahead of lack of savings and personal debt. Young…
TLDR Finland’s iGaming market officially opens to international competition on July 1, 2027, ending the state gambling monopoly State operator Veikkaus will keep exclusive control over national lottery draws and physical slot machines Veikkaus cut 26 jobs and created 22 new roles to prepare for the competitive market The company reported €936 million in sales and €431.6 million in operating profit last year Government officials are discussing a possible future privatization of Veikkaus after market liberalization Finland is about to make one of the biggest changes to its gambling industry in the country’s history. The state-run monopoly on online gambling…
TLDR A German study surveyed 4,795 gamblers aged 18–70 to measure how gambling ads are perceived People with gambling disorder reported much stronger effects from advertising across all categories measured The biggest impact was on gambling engagement, not just awareness of ads Men and younger participants showed higher risk levels for gambling problems Researchers suggest limiting gambling ad exposure could help protect vulnerable groups The gambling advertising debate in Europe just got fresh fuel from a new German study. Researchers surveyed nearly 5,000 active gamblers to find out how they experience betting ads — and the results paint a clear…
TLDR Ukrainian online gambling deposits reached 158 billion UAH (€3.95 billion) in 2025, averaging over €10.8 million per day Gambling companies paid out roughly €2.63 billion, a 66% payout ratio, with regulators flagging suspicious withdrawal patterns Authorities identified money laundering red flags including withdrawals to unverified cards and unusually large transfers across platforms Ukraine lacks a functional state online monitoring system, leaving the market largely unregulated during wartime MPs are pushing for mandatory digital monitoring tools, spending limits, and stricter anti-money laundering measures Ukrainian online gambling deposits surged to 158 billion UAH during 2025. That figure converts to approximately €3.95…
TLDR Predictive AI tools are being used to spot gambling harm early by tracking betting patterns and session lengths Online fraudsters are using deepfakes and bots to beat identity checks, with machine learning fighting back Smart tables with cameras and chipped games now log every bet live on casino floors Regulators want clear explanations for AI decisions, rejecting “black box” outputs that affect players Privacy concerns are pushing casinos toward anonymised data use and “privacy by design” frameworks Industry experts at the Regulating the Game 2026 conference in Sydney said artificial intelligence is already changing how casinos and online gambling…
TLDR Underdog acquired Aristotle Exchange, gaining a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse The deal lets Underdog list and manage event contracts directly, without third-party partners Underdog previously exited sports betting, shutting down in North Carolina and pulling out of Missouri The company laid off over 125 employees (20%+ of staff) as part of its strategic shift PredictIt was not part of the acquisition and will continue operating as normal Underdog has acquired Aristotle Exchange, a platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The deal gives Underdog direct control of a licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. Before this acquisition, Underdog offered…
TLDR Investigate Europe tested leading AI chatbots across 10 European countries over two weeks MetaAI recommended unlicensed casinos in 27 of 30 prompts; Gemini in 26; ChatGPT in 22 Chatbots advised users on bypassing self-exclusion schemes like the UK’s Gamstop One chatbot called “no-ID casinos” the “Holy Grail” and promoted crypto casinos for anonymity Regulators, charities, and an EU Parliament member have raised concerns about the findings An investigation by Investigate Europe found that popular AI chatbots are regularly directing users to unlicensed online casinos across Europe. The probe tested several leading AI models over two weeks using prompts about…