Author: Trader Edge

TLDR Polymarket bettors put the chance of Iran’s regime collapsing by March 31 at just over 20%, down from 40% after Khamenei was killed A trader turned a $23,000 bet into a $120,000 profit by betting on Khamenei’s removal hours before the U.S.-Israel strike Polymarket’s own social media has flagged over two dozen suspicious trades on its platform An Israeli military reservist was arrested for allegedly using classified information to trade on Polymarket Kalshi bans insider trading in its rulebook; Polymarket does not Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are under growing scrutiny after a series of well-timed trades surrounding the…

TLDR DraftKings stock rose 9.31% last week after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.99 billion and swinging to a net profit of $136.43 million. The company’s Predictions feature now operates in 38 states, including California and Texas, which are off-limits to its core sportsbook. 2026 revenue guidance of $6.5B–$6.9B came in below analyst expectations of ~$7.3B, but Predictions revenue was excluded entirely. Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating with a $46 price target; Morgan Stanley also held a positive stance. CEO Jason Robins has projected Predictions could eventually generate up to $10 billion in gross revenue. DraftKings has had a rough stretch.…

TLDR MarketBeat flagged seven casino stocks with the highest dollar trading volume, including DraftKings, MGM, and PENN Entertainment DraftKings analysts see roughly 30% upside potential tied to its prediction markets launch MGM posted record revenue of $17.2 billion in 2024, up 7% year-over-year PENN Entertainment ended its ESPN Bet deal early in November 2025 after poor results Caesars became the largest U.S. casino operator after its 2020 merger and has 54 properties worldwide Five casino stocks are drawing investor attention in early 2026, based on trading volume data and recent analyst coverage. Here is a breakdown of what’s happening with…

TLDR Users on Kalshi and Polymarket placed bets on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei losing power before he was killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, 2026. Crypto analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six suspected insiders who made $1.2 million on Polymarket betting on the Iran strike. Sen. Chris Murphy announced plans to introduce legislation to ban prediction markets, calling the bets illegal. Kalshi refunded $2.2 million in fees and net losses to users after confusion over how the market would be settled. The CFTC already bans contracts tied to terrorism, war, or assassination, but regulated prediction markets found…

TLDR Six fresh Polymarket wallets made $1.2 million betting on US strikes against Iran hours before they happened The largest single bet turned $61,000 into $493,000 — an 821% return Blockchain data shows identical trade timestamps and minimal trading histories across the winning wallets The CFTC issued an insider trading warning just three days before the strikes Lawmakers are pushing legislation to ban prediction market bets tied to military action Six newly created accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket made $1.2 million betting that the US would strike Iran by February 28, 2026. The accounts were funded within 24 hours…

TLDR Polymarket and Kalshi together control roughly 79% of the prediction market, with Polymarket leading on volume at $56 billion versus Kalshi’s $44 billion Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and legal for US users, while Polymarket operates offshore on the Polygon blockchain using USDC Kalshi earned $260 million in 2025, driven heavily by sports betting; Polymarket only began charging fees in early 2026 Both Robinhood and Coinbase are building their own CFTC-licensed exchanges, which could threaten Kalshi’s distribution advantage Polymarket acquired prediction market API startup Dome in February 2026, signaling a push to build developer infrastructure Polymarket and Kalshi have become the…

TLDR Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market, has sued the state of Utah to block enforcement of proposed anti-gambling laws against its platform. Utah Governor Spencer Cox and Attorney General Derek Brown have publicly stated they intend to stop Kalshi from operating in the state. Kalshi argues its contracts are regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has said it holds exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. Utah’s HB243 bill, which would classify proposition betting as gambling, has passed the House and a Senate committee and is awaiting a full Senate vote. Kalshi says its services fall under…

TLDR Caesars Entertainment (CZR) jumped 20.6% Thursday after reports it is weighing takeover offers, including one from Tilman Fertitta’s Fertitta Entertainment. A management-led buyout is also reportedly being considered; Caesars declined to comment. CZR’s enterprise value sits at ~$16B, which would make any deal one of the largest in gaming in years. MGM Resorts closed up 5.79% Thursday but slipped 0.6% in Friday premarket to $37.41. Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands also gained 2.48% and 1.60% respectively on Thursday. Caesars Entertainment (CZR) exploded 20.6% on Thursday after the Financial Times reported the casino operator is fielding takeover interest from…

TLDR MGM stock rose 5.79% to $37.62 on February 26 — its third straight day of gains Trading volume hit 7.3M, well above the 50-day average of 4.6M Full-year 2025 revenue reached $17.5bn, up 2%, but net income dropped to $206M from $747M MGM China revenue jumped 11% to $4.5bn while the Las Vegas Strip fell 4% MGM and BetMGM pledged $1M to responsible gaming, including $450K for sports wagering research MGM Resorts International closed Thursday at $37.62, up 5.79% on the day. It was the third consecutive session in the green for the stock. MGM Resorts International, MGM The…

TLDR PumpMarket launched on Solana mainnet, resolving 63 markets and recording 66 SOL in volume within the first 48 hours The platform lets users stake SOL on whether Pump.fun tokens will “graduate” from the bonding curve within one hour It uses a parimutuel pool model, pooling all stakes and paying out winners proportionally PumpMarket is competing in Pump.fun’s $3 million Build in Public Hackathon, which has already funded two projects at $250,000 each Plans include expanding to downside markets, market cap milestones, volume thresholds, and exchange listing outcomes PumpMarket has gone live on Solana mainnet, offering a prediction market focused…