TLDR
- President Lula banned online betting on September 25, just nine days before Brazil’s first round of elections.
- Several candidates who backed betting restrictions lost or finished far behind in states from Rio de Janeiro to Rio Grande do Sul.
- In Rio de Janeiro, Douglas Ruas beat Eduardo Paes 50.88% to 44.16% after a recount, reversing pre-election polls.
- Polls showed strong support for the ban, but most voters said it would not change how they vote.
- Lula has not spoken publicly about the ban since the first round, ahead of the October 25 runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro.
Candidates who campaigned against online betting in Brazil did not see clear gains in the first round of the country’s elections. Several supporters of betting restrictions lost or finished far behind in states from Rio de Janeiro to Rio Grande do Sul.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva banned online betting on September 25 by signing Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026. The move came just nine days before the vote.
Candidates in several states picked up the issue in the final week of campaigning. However, the results showed no clear link between backing the ban and winning votes.
Rio de Janeiro Race Flips After Recount
In Rio de Janeiro, PSD candidate Eduardo Paes promised to shut down the state lottery company, Loterj. He also blamed the Bolsonaro government for creating a “betting paradise.”
A Datafolha poll before the election gave Paes 46% of valid votes and Douglas Ruas of the PL 38%. Those rankings were reversed in the first count.
Ruas gained further after the Electoral Court ruled Anthony Garotinho’s candidacy invalid and annulled his 274,411 votes. After the recount, Ruas had 50.88% and Paes had 44.16%.
Paes’s ally, federal deputy Pedro Paulo (PSD), also failed to win a Senate seat.
In Minas Gerais, Patrus Ananias (PT), who called the ban “a new beginning” for families, received about 26% of votes. Governor Mateus Simões (PSD), who limited betting ads in stadiums and announced R$32 million in aid for clubs, got under 5%.
Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos), a betting critic who mostly avoided the topic, won with about 55%.
In Rio Grande do Sul, Juliana Brizola (PDT) won about 32% after backing the measure. Luciano Zucco (PL), who called the ban “a clear act of electoral desperation,” won about 58%.
In Paraná, Sergio Moro (PL) defeated Requião Filho (PDT) with 50.10%. In Ceará, anti-betting candidate Ciro Gomes (PSDB) received 46.52%.
There were exceptions. In Bahia, Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), who welcomed Lula’s decision, was re-elected governor with 55.80%.
In Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra (PSD) praised the president for “taking up this fight” and offered aid to sports clubs. She received 53.25%.
Polls Showed Voters Were Not Swayed
Pre-election polls showed a gap between support for a ban and its effect on votes. A Cruz Consulting/ANJL survey found 68.1% of social program beneficiaries said the betting issue would not affect their vote.
An Indexa/Broadcast survey found 70% supported a ban, but 63% said it had no impact on their choice. Palver reported that just 1% of respondents were thinking of changing their vote after the ban.
Datafolha recorded 78% support for the ban on October 1. That included 70% of Flávio Bolsonaro’s voters.
Murilo Hidalgo, president of Paraná Pesquisas, told Revista Oeste the measure was a “shot in the foot,” especially among sports fans and teams. “They are no longer talking about it,” he said of the government.
No available survey has shown a direct causal link between the ban and the first-round results.
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) advanced to face Lula in the October 25 presidential runoff. Some members of Lula’s campaign reportedly believe the ban hurt his chances, and Lula has not spoken publicly about it since the first round.
