TLDR
- Brazil’s government estimates a betting ban would cost R$6.8 billion in lost revenue from late 2026 through 2027.
- BNLData puts the loss at R$18.2 billion over the same period, nearly three times the official figure.
- Federal taxes from the betting sector totaled R$9.95 billion in 2025 and are not included in the government’s estimate.
- Kambi director Mateo Lenoble says the ban has hurt investor confidence and created lasting legal uncertainty.
- Lenoble warns bettors may move to offshore sites, raising match-fixing and gambling harm risks.
Brazil’s ban on online betting could cost public finances far more than the government expects. At the same time, companies that serve the market say the move is already affecting their business.
The ban comes less than two years after Brazil launched its regulated online gambling market.
Government and Analysts Disagree on the Cost
Planning Minister Bruno Moretti confirmed the government’s estimate in an interview published October 19 by Valor. He said lost revenue would reach R$1.5 billion in late 2026 and R$5.3 billion in 2027, for a total of R$6.8 billion.
Moretti also said the government is looking at cutting spending tied to betting revenue. This would help limit the effect on the federal budget.
However, data compiled by BNLData puts the loss at R$18.2 billion between October 2026 and December 2027. BNLData calls its estimate conservative because it does not include market growth or a higher allocation rate planned for 2027.
According to BNLData, the government’s R$5.3 billion figure only covers money sent to legal beneficiaries. These include programs in sports, tourism, public security, health, education and social security.
The government’s figure leaves out federal taxes paid by the sector. These include corporate income tax, social contributions and social security payments, which totaled R$9.95 billion in 2025.
Ending the regulated market would also stop future licensing revenue. It could also expose the government to compensation claims from operators.
Federal revenue from betting reached R$7.284 billion in the first half of 2026. At that pace, it would reach about R$14.6 billion a year.
Moretti said the government expects betting activity to drop under current restrictions. But gross gaming revenue rose 15.3% to R$20.07 billion in the first half of 2026, and June set a monthly record of R$513 million for legal beneficiaries.
A financial institution consulted by Valor estimates a R$11.2 billion impact in 2027. It assumes some money spent on betting will return to the economy as taxable spending.
The debate comes as the government prepares changes to its 2027 budget. The Senate’s Independent Fiscal Institution projects a R$86.1 billion deficit for 2027, while the government’s proposal calls for a R$18.6 billion surplus.
Kambi Says Ban Has Hurt Investor Confidence
Sports betting supplier Kambi has also spoken out about the ban. Director Mateo Lenoble told iGaming Business that the move has already damaged investor confidence in the Brazilian market.
He said that even if operations resume, the legal uncertainty created by the ban will remain.
Lenoble also warned that bettors will not simply stop placing bets. Instead, he said, many will turn to unlicensed offshore sites, which raises the risk of match-fixing and gambling harm.
Kambi only works in regulated markets, so its Brazil-facing projects have been disrupted. Lenoble said companies that operate only in Brazil have been hit even harder.
He said Brazil would remain an attractive market if the ban is reversed, and Kambi would likely keep serving it. Kambi, a member of the International Betting Integrity Association, continues to support its local partners while it waits for a final decision.
