TLDR
- Lawyer Luiz Felipe Maia says Brazil’s betting ban is politically motivated and will be reversed.
- President Lula announced the ban in late September through a provisional measure.
- Maia estimates the ban will cost Brazil BRL15 billion ($2.99 billion) in yearly revenue.
- The Attorney General’s Office is seeking BRL3.6 billion in damages and health costs from operators.
- Maia warns the ban could push 30 million bettors to illegal gambling sites.
A well-known Brazilian lawyer says the country’s new ban on betting will not hold up. Luiz Felipe Maia, of the firm Maia Yoshiyasu Advogados, believes Congress and the courts will reverse the decision.
Maia spoke to iGaming Business during the SBC Lisbon event. He called the ban politically motivated and said it creates distrust toward Brazil.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced the ban in late September. It was issued through a provisional measure, a type of temporary decree.
Lawyer Calls Ban an Election Move
Maia said the timing of the ban shows it was meant to win votes. He pointed out that the measure was issued without a fiscal impact study.
Lula had warned that he would ban betting if the industry did not develop properly. In a speech, the president spoke about people who took their own lives because of debt.
Maia said the government never checked whether that debt was really caused by gambling. He called the ban “very cheap opportunism.”
He also compared betting to other industries. He asked whether Brazil would shut down mining after environmental disasters, or close brewer Ambev because of drunk driving deaths.
Maia said companies paid BRL30 million each for a licence. They operated under rules set by the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets, known as the SPA, starting in 2025.
He praised those rules, saying Brazil’s regulation is among the best in the world. He warned that the ban could make investors see Brazil as a riskier place to do business.
“If the Brazilian government is willing to do this with a regulated activity, what can’t it do with any other?” he said.
Billions in Revenue and Damages at Stake
Maia estimates the ban will cost Brazil BRL15 billion, or about $2.99 billion, in revenue each year. He said that money would be lost without any new income to replace it.
He also said the ban “simply gifts 30 million gamblers to organised crime.” In his view, bettors will move to illegal sites rather than stop gambling.
Maia warned that Brazil could face compensation claims from licensed companies if it breaks its commitments to them.
The Attorney General’s Office is taking its own action against the industry. It is seeking BRL1 billion for collective moral damages and BRL2.6 billion to repay the public health system, known as SUS. Together, the claims total BRL3.6 billion.
Maia said the lawsuit makes no sense because the companies followed the law. “There is no illegal act that generates compensable damage,” he said.
He also questioned how the amounts were calculated, calling the numbers “fantastical.” He noted that the regulations already set aside money for healthcare.
Maia said legal challenges against the provisional measure are already before the courts. He expects judges to reject the Attorney General’s claim.
The next steps will come from Brazil’s courts, which must rule on the compensation claim, and from Congress, which must decide whether to accept or reject the provisional measure.
