TLDR
- Vitalik Buterin warned prediction markets are drifting toward addictive, low-value gambling he calls “corposlop”
- He said platforms rely too much on sports betting and short-term crypto price wagers
- Buterin was an early investor in Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms
- As recently as December 2025, he had defended prediction markets as healthier than traditional finance
- He now says prediction markets should pursue use cases like personalized insurance instead
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum and an early backer of prediction market platform Polymarket, has raised concerns about where prediction markets are heading. He posted his warning on X on February 18, 2026.
Buterin said he is worried that platforms are leaning too heavily on sports betting, short-term crypto price wagers, and other high-engagement, low-value products. He described this trend as “over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit.”
He coined the term “corposlop” to describe platforms that are optimized for addictive, low-value gambling rather than meaningful financial or social utility. It is the direction he fears the industry is moving toward.
Buterin said he understands why companies make this choice. He wrote that teams feel motivated to chase this revenue during bear markets when money is tight, but called it a path that ultimately leads to corposlop.
He said there is “nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions,” but added that making it a core strategy is “cursed.” He argued it pushes platforms to actively encourage bad thinking to drive more traffic.
A Shift From His December 2025 Position
As recently as December 2025, Buterin had defended prediction markets. He described participation in them as “healthier” than traditional financial markets and pushed back on comparisons to gambling.
At that time, he said prediction markets were more truth-seeking and transparent than legacy finance. His February post marks a clear change in tone from that earlier stance.
Prediction markets have grown quickly over the past year. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have reached multi-billion-dollar valuations, driven by demand for election markets, sports contracts, and crypto-linked bets.
Users on these platforms can now wager on a wide range of topics, from weather events to celebrity news. Institutional players including Jump Trading and Coinbase have also entered the space.
What Buterin Wants Instead
Buterin said prediction markets should be more like what he described as operating similarly to sportsbooks, but with more ambitious goals. He pointed to personalized insurance systems as one example of a better use case.
He wrote that people could hold stocks, ETH, or other assets to grow wealth, while using prediction market shares when they want stability. He suggested this could reduce reliance on fiat currency entirely.
Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi responded to requests for comment by the time of publication.
Buterin’s post came as prediction markets continue to attract new capital and users. The gap between his vision for the space and its current commercial direction appears to be widening.
