TLDR
- Prediction markets like Polymarket are booming in the US but are blocked or banned across most of Europe as illegal gambling
- France, Germany, the Netherlands, and several other countries have geoblocked Polymarket or issued fines against the platform
- Despite bans, user traffic from Europe continues through mirror sites and redirect links
- Some European lawyers suggest prediction markets could find a path forward if classified as financial products instead of gambling
- Europe lacks a single federal regulator like the US CFTC, creating a patchwork of conflicting national rules
Prediction markets exploded in popularity in the United States in 2024. Platforms like Polymarket let users trade contracts on real-world events, from elections to geopolitical crises.
During the 2024 US presidential election, traders on Polymarket wagered billions on the outcome. The platform correctly forecast the result before many traditional pollsters did.
But in Europe, the reaction has been very different. Regulators across the continent have moved to block prediction markets, treating them as either illegal gambling or unlicensed financial instruments.
France’s gambling regulator, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux, investigated Polymarket in 2024. It concluded the platform could constitute unauthorized gambling. Polymarket then geoblocked French users.
The French regulator warned that prediction market platforms “are not authorised in France and are considered illegal gambling services.” It also said the platforms showed addictive characteristics similar to online gambling but without protective safeguards.
A Growing List of European Bans
Germany, Belgium, Portugal, Switzerland, Romania, the Netherlands, and Poland have all blocked access to Polymarket. Each country argued the platform offers gambling services without a license.
The Netherlands has been especially firm. Under Dutch law, licensed betting is limited to sports and horse racing. Markets on elections or other events fall outside what is allowed.
The Dutch regulator issued a cease-and-desist order against Polymarket earlier this year. It threatened the platform with a fine of €840,000, roughly $994,000.
Despite these bans, prediction markets have not disappeared from Europe. Traffic data suggests European users are still accessing the platforms through mirror domains, redirect links, and alternative entry points.
Ismail Vali, president of RegTech firm Gaming Compliance International, said enforcement is rarely perfect.
“If a regulator simply blocks one website, that doesn’t mean the operator stops doing business in that jurisdiction,” he explained.
According to Vali, users return to check their prediction market positions about 15 times per hour during the first day after placing a trade. That level of engagement is far higher than what is seen in traditional online betting.
Could Financial Regulation Offer a Way Forward?
Some legal experts believe prediction markets could find a path in Europe if they are classified as financial products rather than gambling. In Germany, lawyer Wulf Hambach suggested the product could potentially fall under the supervision of BaFin, the country’s financial authority.
However, Hambach noted that the Polymarket model could not simply be copied into Germany. It would need to be adapted to fit the country’s legal definitions.
Europe faces a structural problem that the US does not. There is no single European authority governing prediction markets the way the Commodity Futures Trading Commission does in the United States.
Former Entain chief executive Gavin Isaacs said this fragmentation makes the issue difficult. “It’s very complicated,” he said, pointing out that no two European countries handle the issue the same way.
Mark Davies, a founding member of the Betfair team, said the current debate around prediction markets feels familiar. Betfair’s betting exchange introduced similar mechanics decades ago and faced the same regulatory questions.
In 2024, prediction markets accounted for about 7.9% of illegal sports betting revenue, according to Gaming Compliance International. That figure is expected to reach at least 10% in 2025.
