TLDR
- Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) stock dropped 11.5% on February 13, 2026, hitting new 52-week lows on both NYSE and the London Stock Exchange.
- The sell-off was driven by a UK iGaming tax hike (21% to 40%), a new U.S. “phantom income” tax law, and slowing market growth.
- Full-year 2025 revenue hit $16.69 billion (+19% YoY), but a $789 million Q3 net loss and guidance cut weighed heavily on sentiment.
- FanDuel holds ~43% U.S. sports betting market share, but faces rising competition from DraftKings (37%) and prediction market platforms.
- Analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus; price targets range from $170 (Bernstein) to $300 (UBS) following the drop.
Flutter Entertainment hit a rough patch in February 2026, and it wasn’t subtle. The stock shed 11.5% in a single session on February 13, falling to around $125.17. On the London Stock Exchange, shares touched a new 52-week low of GBX 8,940 on Wednesday, last trading at GBX 9,044.
The drop didn’t come out of nowhere. A combination of regulatory pressure, tax changes, and softer-than-expected results all landed at once.
The most immediate trigger was the UK government’s decision to raise iGaming duty from 21% to 40%. Flutter estimates this will create a $320 million EBITDA headwind in 2026 alone. That’s a serious hit to one of the company’s most profitable segments.
Flutter Entertainment plc, FLUT
Across the Atlantic, a new U.S. law called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) went into effect in January 2026. It limits gambling loss deductions to 90% of winnings, meaning high-volume bettors now face a tax burden even when they break even. That’s been cutting into FanDuel’s handle.
Flutter’s full-year 2025 numbers were actually solid on the surface. Revenue came in at an estimated $16.69 billion, up 19% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA grew 24% to roughly $2.915 billion.
But dig deeper and the cracks show. Q3 2025 included a $789 million net loss, largely tied to a $556 million impairment on its Indian operations (Junglee Games) after adverse tax changes in that market.
Management also cut full-year 2025 guidance by nearly $570 million. The reason? An unusually long run of customer-friendly sports results — favorites winning at well above historical rates in both the NFL and Premier League, eating into bookmaker margins.
FanDuel’s U.S. Lead Under Pressure
FanDuel remains the leader in U.S. sports betting with around 43% market share, but DraftKings is sitting at 37% and pushing hard. New entrants like ESPN BET and prediction market platforms such as Kalshi are fragmenting the space and pushing up customer acquisition costs.
Flutter launched FanDuel Predicts in early 2026, entering the prediction markets space. Projected costs for the initiative run between $200 million and $300 million for the year, which has investors watching margin numbers closely.
In the UK, Entain’s brands are outgrowing Flutter’s, posting 9% growth compared to Flutter’s 2% in the most recent quarter.
Analyst Targets and What’s Next
Wall Street has cooled but hasn’t walked away. UBS cut its price target from $320 to $300. Bernstein is more cautious, holding a $170 target. The consensus rating sits at “Moderate Buy.”
On the London exchange, Deutsche Bank lowered its target from £202 to £190 (buy), while JPMorgan trimmed from £271 to £253 (overweight). Berenberg went the other way, raising its target from £181 to £213.
The company’s 50-day moving average on the London exchange stands at £141.64, well below the 200-day average of £173.60.
Flutter’s Brazil operation, built around a 56% stake in NSX Group (Betnacional), gives it an 11% share of that newly regulated market, with a target of 25% by 2030.
Q1 2026 earnings will be the next real test, with investors watching FanDuel’s handle figures closely in light of the new U.S. tax rules.
