TLDR
- Gibraltar published a standalone regulatory framework for prediction markets on Monday under the new Gambling Act 2025.
- The rules require all event contracts to be approved by the Gambling Authority and be clear, objective, and resistant to manipulation.
- Two licenses have already been issued, including one to ADI Predictstreet and a pending one to US firm WagerWire.
- The framework arrives as US and European regulators still disagree on whether prediction markets count as gambling or financial products.
- Several European countries have already blocked major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi over consumer protection concerns.
Gibraltar has become the first region in the world to create a standalone regulatory framework built just for prediction markets. The rules were published in the Gibraltar Gazette on Monday.
They fall under the territory’s new Gambling Act 2025. Minister Nigel Feetham led the effort alongside the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry.
The framework uses what officials call an “activity-based and risk-based approach.” This means rules are shaped around the specific risks prediction markets create.
Those risks include market manipulation, financial crime, and protecting people who place bets or trades. The document also covers governance and how disputes get settled.
What The New Rules Require
Every event contract offered by an operator must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority first. Contracts also need to be clear and capable of objective settlement.
Operators must build their own systems to catch manipulation, insider dealing, or misuse of private information. The authority can block any contract it sees as against the public interest.
This includes contracts tied to crime, death, serious injury, war, or terrorism. Gibraltar’s regulator also formed an independent supervisory panel to oversee how the framework gets applied.
Feetham said the panel has experience managing complex digital and technology-based markets.
Early Licenses And Industry Reaction
Two operators already hold licenses tied to this space. ADI Predictstreet received an early license back in April, though it initially fell under older gambling rules.
WagerWire, a California-based betting platform, is on track to become the second license holder. The company received approval in June and plans to launch its product before NFL preseason games begin.
WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger said he expects other countries to copy Gibraltar’s approach. He described the move as bringing order to what he called a “wild west” period for the industry.
Feetham said the goal was to respond quickly to changes in the global betting and trading landscape. He pointed to recent UK gambling tax increases as one pressure point affecting operators based in Gibraltar.
Prediction markets have grown fast worldwide, largely driven by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Regulators in different countries still disagree on how to classify them.
In the United States, financial regulators and gambling regulators have gone back and forth over jurisdiction. Some treat prediction markets as financial products, while others treat them as a form of betting.
The European Union’s markets regulator, ESMA, restated its own position last week. It said certain prediction contracts, including simple yes-or-no bets with fixed payouts, fall under its oversight.
Other European countries have taken a harder stance. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain formed a coordinated group in June.
That group has already blocked platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi from operating in their markets. Regulators cited a lack of safeguards, including no required betting limits or cooling-off periods for users.
Feetham said Gibraltar’s new rules include some of those same protections. This includes anti-money laundering checks, sanctions compliance, and rules for safeguarding client funds.
Operators must also show they have enough financial resources and a wind-down plan in case they need to exit the market. Gibraltar officials say the framework is designed to stay flexible as the industry keeps changing.
