TLDR
- An Israeli Air Force major was indicted for using classified military briefings to place bets on Polymarket about the timing of strikes on Iran
- The officer and a civilian partner allegedly made over $160,000 from their first bet on the June 2025 strikes
- The pair continued betting on the end of the war and a Yemen strike, earning thousands more over several months
- A separate higher-ranking crew member admitted making tens of thousands from similar bets and claimed betting was widespread across the air force
- Countries across Europe and North America are now moving to restrict or ban prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
An Israeli Air Force reservist holding the rank of major has been charged with using classified military intelligence to profit on the prediction market Polymarket.
A Tel Aviv court revealed that the officer was indicted last month along with a civilian accomplice. Prosecutors say the pair bet on the timing of Israel’s opening strikes against Iran in June 2025.
The charges include severe security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Both defendants’ names remain sealed under a court order.
How the Scheme Allegedly Worked
According to the indictment, the reservist shared details from a confidential military briefing with his civilian partner one day before the operation launched. When Israeli jets struck on June 13, the civilian placed the bet.
The two then split the winnings, which totaled more than $160,000. The civilian reportedly opened a digital wallet for the reservist and transferred his cut in cryptocurrency.
The pair did not stop there. They continued placing bets on Polymarket, including a successful prediction on when the 12-day war would end.
In September 2025, prosecutors allege the reservist again passed along sensitive information. This time it involved a planned strike in Yemen, which earned them thousands of dollars more.
Their betting continued into January, when they tried to wager on renewed fighting with Iran. That bet was canceled after the civilian spotted social media posts about his account.
Out of fear of being caught, the civilian changed his profile and deleted WhatsApp messages between himself and the officer. Prosecutors have asked the court to keep both men in custody until trial.
The Israel Defense Forces said “no operational harm was caused” by the leak. But the IDF also called the conduct “a severe ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line.”
Betting Called Widespread Across the Air Force
In a separate but related case, another air force crew member was questioned about betting on the Iran strikes. This individual holds a higher rank than the indicted reservist.
He admitted to making tens of thousands of dollars from wagers. Prosecutors chose not to indict him for now, but he was placed under house arrest and removed from his squadron.
During interrogations, investigators learned that Polymarket betting may be far more common within the military than previously known.
“The entire squadron is on Polymarket, the entire air force is betting,” the indicted officer told investigators. He refused to name others involved.
He also said he told a crew member from another squadron, who confirmed that his unit was also betting on the platform.
Evidence included a WhatsApp message sent by the higher-ranking suspect to his wife during the war with Iran. It read, “Good morning to your genius man who turned $1,000 into $46,000.”
Investigators also found that at least one commander had known about the betting. That commander was later questioned for failing to act.
The State Prosecutor’s Office confirmed the higher-ranking suspect’s case is still under review, according to a report from Haaretz.
These cases come as governments across Europe and North America push to regulate prediction markets. In the US, Congress has introduced proposals to ban government officials from betting with insider knowledge. Portugal and the Netherlands have announced complete bans on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
