TLDR
- Polymarket hit 45.3 million web visits in March, up 13% from its previous record of 40 million in November 2024
- Kalshi reached 13 million web visits in March, nearly double its November 2024 numbers
- Polymarket monthly traffic is up nearly 400% year-over-year, while Kalshi is up about 320%
- Election Day 2024 still holds the record for the single highest-trafficked day on both platforms
- Iran war-related betting markets have driven growth but also sparked controversy over ethics
March 2026 was the biggest month on record for online prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Both platforms saw web traffic surpass their previous highs set during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle.
Polymarket logged 45.3 million web visits across desktop and mobile in March, according to estimates from Similarweb. That figure represents a roughly 13% increase over the 40 million visits the platform recorded in November 2024.
Kalshi, a smaller but growing competitor, saw even sharper relative gains. The platform reached 13 million web visits in March, nearly double the 7.1 million visits it logged in November 2024.
Iran War Bets Drive Traffic Surge
The growth has been fueled in large part by betting markets related to the Iran conflict. These markets have drawn massive interest from users looking to wager on geopolitical outcomes.
Polymarket’s monthly web visits are up nearly 400% year-over-year. Kalshi’s traffic has climbed about 320% over the same period.
Despite the record-breaking monthly numbers, Election Day 2024 still holds the crown for the single busiest day. Polymarket saw 8.4 million visits on that day alone, while Kalshi recorded 1.9 million.
After the 2024 election, traffic to both platforms dropped off sharply. But visits came roaring back in early 2026 as the Iran situation escalated.
The surge in Iran-related betting has not come without controversy. The New York Times reported that a wave of large bets on Polymarket appeared one day before the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.
Those bets, many of at least $1,000, predicted the U.S. would strike Iran by the following day. The timing raised questions about whether some users had advance knowledge of the strikes.
Polymarket did not respond to the Times’ request for comment on the matter. The platform said on its website that its forecasts on the Middle East conflict are “particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times.”
Ethical Concerns Mount Over War-Related Markets
Kalshi froze a major betting market titled “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” after users had wagered more than $54 million. The platform did not issue payouts, saying it does not allow markets “directly tied to death,” according to the Washington Post.
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which bans trading on war and death. Communications chief Elisabeth Diana told the Times that profiting on death is “not allowed on Kalshi, and that’s a good thing.”
Kalshi still operates several Iran-related markets, including bets on whether the U.S. and Iran will reach a nuclear deal.
Polymarket faced fresh scrutiny over the weekend for running a market that let users predict when a missing U.S. pilot, whose jet was shot down over Iran, would be found. Rep. Seth Moulton called the bet “DISGUSTING” in a post on X.
Polymarket responded by saying it “took this market down immediately” and that it “should not have been posted.” The company said the market “does not meet our integrity standards.”
Polymarket primarily operates abroad and is not subject to the same CFTC restrictions as Kalshi. The platform continues to run several Iran war markets, including bets on whether U.S. troops will enter Iran and when the war will end. Each of these markets includes a disclaimer defending the platform’s prediction markets as “invaluable.”
