TLDR
- Ireland’s gambling regulator warned it could take High Court action against a large prediction market operator.
- The regulator did not name the company but said it is one of the largest prediction market firms in the world.
- Some operators have withdrawn from Ireland after warning letters, and one has already geoblocked the country.
- The regulator can fine non-compliant companies up to €20 million or 10% of their turnover.
- Countries including Czechia, France, Spain and the Netherlands have already restricted Polymarket.
Ireland’s gambling regulator says it could take a large prediction market company to court. The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland has not named the firm involved.
Anne Marie Caulfield, who leads the regulator, spoke about the case on RTÉ’s This Week. She described the company as one of the largest prediction market operators in the world.
Caulfield said the firm was operating in Ireland without meeting local rules. She did not confirm the name of the company during the interview.
The regulator has already sent warning letters to several operators. In most cases, Caulfield said, companies chose to leave the Irish market on their own.
How the Regulator Can Act
Caulfield explained that when a company refuses to withdraw, the regulator can ask the High Court for a blocking order. This would stop access to the site and affect related funding.
One operator has already geoblocked Ireland after being contacted by the regulator. The company was not named in the report.
Ireland opened an inquiry into Polymarket earlier this year. The investigation followed a cluster of unusual bets tied to a Dublin by-election.
Several accounts on the platform traded against candidate Gerry Hutch winning the race. Analysts flagged the trading pattern as unusual, which led financial and gambling authorities to look into it.
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland began issuing licenses this month. It took over this duty from Revenue, the tax authority.
Caulfield called the licensing process “onerous.” Companies are checked for financial stability, data protection, and consumer safeguards before approval.
The regulator will cover remote gambling this year. It plans to expand oversight to gaming platforms in 2027.
Caulfield said new protections will apply once companies are licensed. These include tools that let players set limits and a ban on using credit cards for gambling.
Penalties for Breaking the Rules
Operators that fail to follow the rules could face heavy fines. Caulfield said the regulator can impose penalties of up to €20 million or 10% of a company’s turnover.
The regulator can also suspend or fully revoke a license. Caulfield described these as sweeping powers that mark a full change from the old system.
She said the authority is building up its compliance team to carry out inspections. The goal is to check that companies are following the new rules.
Prediction markets have faced pushback across Europe in recent months. Polymarket has been targeted repeatedly by regulators in different countries.
Czech authorities ordered internet providers to block Polymarket over unlicensed gambling. France’s gambling authority issued a similar order soon after.
The Dutch regulator dismissed an appeal from the company this month. It kept Polymarket’s classification under gambling law.
Spain has gone further and halted operations for both Polymarket and Kalshi. Both companies were missing licenses required to operate there.
In Italy, Polymarket’s sponsorship deal with football club S.S. Lazio drew attention from lawmakers. Members of the Democratic Party asked ministers to review whether the deal broke advertising and gambling rules.
Ireland’s regulator does not yet have the power to block sites directly. Caulfield said the authority is working with Coimisiún na Meán to gain “trusted flagger status,” which would let it flag non-compliant sites for removal.
