TLDR
- Kalshi is now collecting employment data from traders in high-risk markets to screen for insider knowledge
- A new risk-scoring system flags markets most vulnerable to manipulation
- A 24/7 whistleblower hotline has been launched to report suspicious trading activity
- Recent federal cases — including a Google engineer and a special forces member — have put prediction markets under scrutiny
- Kalshi launched over 150 investigations and blocked 100+ suspected insider trades in Q1 2026 alone
Kalshi, the New York-based prediction market platform, is tightening its rules for traders as concerns about insider betting grow across the industry.
The company announced it will now collect employment information from users who want to trade in markets flagged as high-risk. The goal is to identify traders who may have access to non-public information before placing bets on sensitive events.
The change came from recommendations by Kalshi’s Independent Surveillance Audit Committee, which was set up earlier this year to look at market integrity risks.
New Risk Screening Tools
Kalshi has built a risk-scoring system that rates each market based on how vulnerable it is to manipulation. Markets that score high will require traders to hand over more background information, including where they work.
The company is also launching a 24/7 whistleblower channel so anyone can flag suspicious trading activity in real time.
Kalshi’s enforcement team said the measures are meant to raise oversight standards in a sector that has grown faster than the rules around it.
Federal Cases Put the Industry on Alert
Two recent federal cases have put prediction markets in the spotlight.
In April, U.S. prosecutors charged a special forces member with placing trades on rival platform Polymarket linked to the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro — before the operation became public.
In May, a Google software engineer was accused of using internal company data to trade on search engine outcomes through a prediction market.
Neither case involved Kalshi directly. But both showed how hard it can be to police markets where a small number of people may know key information before anyone else.
Kalshi also had its own incidents. Earlier this year, it penalized three political candidates who had bet on races they were running in. The company also referred former congressman George Santos to authorities over wagers tied to whether he would attend President Trump’s State of the Union.
Trading Volumes Keep Rising
Despite the scrutiny, prediction markets are booming.
Kalshi and Polymarket together hit roughly $24 billion in combined monthly trading volume in April 2026, up from less than $5 billion just seven months earlier, according to Pew Research Center data.
That growth has pushed platforms to prove their markets reflect real forecasting, not inside information.
In Q1 2026, Kalshi launched more than 150 investigations, blocked over 100 suspected insider-trading attempts, and referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement.
The company’s latest moves signal that as prediction markets grow, the pressure to keep them clean is growing just as fast.
