TLDR
- Kalshi and Polymarket have updated policies to stop paid influencers from spreading election fraud claims
- Kalshi asked creators to remove videos alleging misconduct in California’s vote-counting process
- Polymarket told affiliates that denying election results violates its misinformation terms
- Federal investigators are looking into trading activity linked to former congressman George Santos and a Kalshi market
- Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket
Two of the largest prediction market platforms are tightening rules for paid promoters after influencers used their affiliate programs to spread unsupported claims about election fraud in California.
Kalshi and Polymarket both updated or clarified their policies following reporting by NPR technology correspondent Bobby Allyn. The new rules prohibit compensated creators from undermining verified election results or spreading false claims about the voting process.
Sponsored Content Triggers Policy Shift
Kalshi contacted paid partners and asked them to remove content that alleged misconduct in California’s vote-counting process. One video, promoted through a paid partnership, claimed widespread cheating in the state. There was no evidence to support those claims.
Polymarket also stepped in. The company asked creators to remove paid-partnership labels from certain posts after affiliates linked market odds to claims that California elections were being manipulated.
One sponsored post suggested that late-arriving mail ballots consistently favored Democrats for suspicious reasons. Election officials and voting experts have repeatedly debunked that claim.
California counts ballots more slowly than many other states. Election administrators say this is because of extensive verification procedures and opportunities for voters to fix ballot issues before final certification.
Regulatory Pressure Grows
The policy changes come as both platforms face increasing scrutiny from regulators and law enforcement.
Federal investigators are reportedly looking into trading activity connected to former congressman George Santos. The investigation involves a Kalshi market tied to attendance at the State of the Union address.
Earlier this year, Kalshi disclosed that it had taken disciplinary action against three political candidates. All three had traded on markets connected to their own electoral prospects.
In March, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed criminal charges against Kalshi. The charges allege the platform unlawfully facilitated election-related betting.
Kalshi has also informed paid partners that questioning the legitimacy of court decisions or official election outcomes now violates its standards. Polymarket has taken a similar position with its affiliate network.
Political Ties Add Scrutiny
Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Truth Social is also developing its own prediction market product called Truth Predict.
These political connections have added another layer of public and regulatory attention to an industry that has grown quickly in recent years.
Prediction market platforms let users wager on outcomes ranging from elections to sporting events. Their odds are often shared on social media, where movements in those markets are sometimes used to support broader political arguments.
Both companies now appear to be drawing a clearer line between political forecasting and election misinformation. Whether tighter rules for paid promoters will slow the spread of false election narratives is still unclear.
