TLDR
- Kalshi spent $990,000 on direct lobbying in the first half of 2026, pushing its total federal advocacy costs near $1.8 million.
- The American Gaming Association spent $1.39 million lobbying against prediction markets so far this year.
- Polymarket spent far less than Kalshi, reporting $180,000 in lobbying costs during the same period.
- Lawmakers are raising concerns after insider trading questions tied to political and military event contracts.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing a proposed rule on prediction markets and taking public comments.
Kalshi and Polymarket are spending more money to influence lawmakers in Washington. The fight is over how prediction markets should be regulated going forward.
New federal disclosures show Kalshi spent $990,000 on lobbying during the first half of 2026. That already tops what the company spent during all of 2025.
When outside lobbying firms are included, Kalshi’s total federal spending climbs close to $1.8 million for the six-month period. The company now works with seven lobbying operations, including an in-house government affairs team.
The gaming industry is spending heavily too. The American Gaming Association spent $1.39 million on lobbying so far this year.
Including outside firms, the group’s advocacy costs are close to $1.8 million. That figure is about 30% higher than the same period last year.
Cherokee Nation, which operates casinos, also increased its lobbying activity. The tribe reported spending $600,000 during the first half of the year.
Polymarket Spends Far Less Than Rival
Polymarket spent much less than Kalshi. One lobbying firm working on the company’s behalf reported $180,000 in spending during the first six months of 2026.
That puts Polymarket on track to roughly match its 2025 total of about $360,000. The company relies on far fewer lobbying resources than Kalshi does.
The spending increase comes as prediction markets face scrutiny over insider trading. Traders placed bets ahead of U.S. military actions involving Venezuela and Iran.
The Wall Street Journal also reported on wagers that may have used private political information. A teleprompter operator for President Trump was suspended after investigators examined trades made on Kalshi.
Both companies say they have added safeguards to catch insider trading. Lawmakers are also looking at contracts tied to sports, elections and government actions.
Lawmakers Debate How to Regulate the Industry
Kalshi has built relationships with lawmakers from both parties. The company hired former officials from the Obama and Biden administrations and pays Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour appeared at the Capitol with Democratic Representative Josh Gottheimer to support a bill aimed at protecting children from online gambling.
Congress has proposed several bills targeting insider trading and limiting contracts tied to sports, elections and military conflicts. Sports contracts remain the biggest category traded on these platforms.
Prediction market companies argue sports contracts work like financial swaps and should fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Critics say the contracts are just sports betting and should follow state gambling laws.
Representative Dusty Johnson said many Americans see the contracts as sports betting while others view them as financial tools. He said the real question is whether current laws can tell the difference.
Big legislation is unlikely before Congress turns its focus to the November elections. Industry watchers are instead looking at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The agency released a proposed rule on prediction markets in June. It is still accepting public comments before deciding what to do next.
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer is still investigating how the platforms handle insider trading. Kalshi and Polymarket received different treatment during recent briefings, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Kalshi’s presentation was viewed well by committee members, who questioned Polymarket after it sent outside lawyers instead of company staff. Polymarket said this was a misunderstanding and plans to keep cooperating with the investigation.
