TLDR
- Kalshi has partnered with XP International to launch regulated prediction markets in Brazil
- XP Group manages over $345 billion in assets and serves 4.7 million customers
- The service will be available to clients with international accounts through XP’s Clear brokerage
- Initial markets will focus on financial and economic events
- Brazil’s gambling regulator IBJR has raised concerns, warning the products may constitute betting under existing law
Kalshi, a U.S.-based regulated prediction market platform, is expanding outside the United States for the first time. The company has teamed up with XP International, part of Brazil’s XP Group, to offer prediction markets to Brazilian investors.
XP Group is one of Brazil’s largest financial institutions. It manages over $345 billion in assets and has more than 4.7 million customers. Through this deal, XP becomes the first company to offer regulated prediction markets outside the U.S.
The service will be available through Clear, XP’s brokerage arm. Only customers who hold an international investment account will be able to participate.
Kalshi said it chose to start with financial and economic events. The company believes these markets have “the potential to increase pricing efficiency and improve market information quality.”
Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder and COO of Kalshi, commented on the deal. “As a Brazilian, I couldn’t be more excited for XP to be Kalshi’s first brokerage partner outside the U.S.,” she said.
XP said the markets will be offered “with diligence, aligned with client profiles and regulatory requirements.” The company also pointed to its focus on financial education and governance.
Regulatory Uncertainty in Brazil
The regulatory landscape in Brazil is still unsettled. In February, Brazil’s securities regulator, the CVM, approved the first prediction market as a financial security.
However, there is no clear agreement on which body should oversee these markets going forward. Analysts say oversight could fall to the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance.
The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) pushed back on the launch. The group warned that prediction markets tied to uncertain outcomes are, in its view, a form of betting — regardless of how they are packaged.
“Presenting these models as innovation only masks the legal risk, without changing the economic exposure,” the IBJR said in a statement.
The IBJR also pointed to international precedent. It noted that in the UK, similar products are treated as betting. In the U.S., it said supervision and enforcement of such products is growing.
What This Means for Investors
For now, the product lineup and full list of available markets have not been disclosed. Kalshi and XP said details will follow in line with regulatory requirements.
The IBJR warned that allowing similar products to operate outside betting rules could lead to “unfair competition, weakening of consumer protection, threat to sports integrity and loss of tax revenue.”
Brazil’s fixed-odds betting legislation was recently structured, and the IBJR argued that bypassing those rules does not represent innovation.
The partnership marks Kalshi’s first move into international markets, with Brazil chosen as the launch country.
