TLDR
- Morgan Stanley forecasts Macau casino GGR to rise 6% in 2026, compared to just 1% growth for Singapore and Las Vegas
- Macau’s 2025 GGR already hit MOP247.40 billion (US$30.63 billion), up 9.1% year over year
- Despite revenue growth, Macau EBITDA is expected to rise only 2% due to rising cost pressures
- Morgan Stanley downgraded its Macau gaming outlook from “attractive” to “in-line”
- Singapore gaming volumes are expected to rise but EBITDA is projected to decline 1% in 2026
Macau’s casinos are on track to outgrow their competitors in Singapore and Las Vegas this year in terms of gross gaming revenue. But profits may not keep up with that top-line growth.
Morgan Stanley released a note on Wednesday forecasting Macau industry GGR to rise by around 6% year on year in 2026. That compares with roughly 1% growth expected for both Singapore and Las Vegas.
The numbers follow a strong 2025 for Macau. Official figures show GGR last year rose 9.1% year over year to MOP247.40 billion, which is about US$30.63 billion.
However, revenue growth does not always mean profit growth. Morgan Stanley expects Macau’s EBITDA to rise by just 2% this year. That is below what the market had been anticipating.
The bank said the weak profit outlook reflects a downgrade from 2025 performance. Cost pressures continue to weigh on earnings across the market.
Structural Cost Pressures Weigh on Macau Profits
Morgan Stanley’s analysts said cost pressure in Macau is now structural. The market’s focus on premium mass players is driving up spending on incentives and promotions for mid-tier customers.
The bank pointed to three main reasons for the modest EBITDA forecast. First, GGR growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2026 due to base effects and continued weakness in base mass business.
Second, promotion allowances remain high. These are costs tied to attracting and retaining players in a competitive environment.
Third, non-gaming expenses continue to rise. These costs are partly linked to commitments Macau’s six casino operators made to the government as part of their current 10-year gaming concessions, which began in January 2023.
Taking all of this into account, Morgan Stanley cut its view on Macau gaming from “attractive” to “in-line.” The bank now expects lower year-on-year GGR growth starting in May.
It also anticipates negative EBITDA growth in the second and third quarters of 2026. That would mark a clear shift from the momentum seen in 2025.
Singapore Volumes Rise but Hold Rates Set to Normalize
Morgan Stanley also weighed in on Singapore’s two-casino market. That market includes Resorts World Sentosa, operated by Genting Singapore, and Marina Bay Sands, operated by Las Vegas Sands.
The bank expects gaming volumes in Singapore to grow by a mid-single-digit percentage in 2026. That growth is being driven by continued strength at Marina Bay Sands and new amenities at Resorts World Sentosa.
However, Morgan Stanley does not expect Genting Singapore to take market share from Marina Bay Sands. The bank noted that Genting Singapore has been unable to do so in recent years.
Marina Bay Sands reported unusually high hold rates in 2025. Morgan Stanley expects those rates to come back down to normal levels this year.
As a result, the bank projects that lower hold rates will offset the volume gains. That leaves overall Singapore industry GGR roughly flat for 2026.
Morgan Stanley estimates Singapore industry EBITDA will decline by about 1% year on year in 2026.
