TLDR
- Macau casino revenue averaged about MOP729 million ($90.2 million) per day from October 5 to 11, according to UBS.
- That was down from about MOP1.0 billion per day in the first four days of Golden Week, but above September’s daily average of MOP602 million.
- Mass-market daily revenue rose 35% to 38% month-on-month, while VIP volume rose 40% to 45%.
- Analysts expect October to average about MOP777 million per day, roughly flat year-on-year.
- Casinos need about MOP744 million per day for the rest of October to meet that forecast.
Macau’s casinos brought in an average of about MOP729 million, or $90.2 million, per day from October 5 to 11. The estimate comes from UBS, which based the figure on its own channel checks.
That daily average stayed above September’s level. But UBS warned that the pace may not be enough to meet market forecasts for the full month of October.
Golden Week Start Gives Way to Slower Pace
Revenue was strongest at the start of October Golden Week, a holiday period in China. During the first four days, Macau’s daily gross gaming revenue averaged about MOP1.0 billion.
The MOP729 million daily average that followed marked a slowdown from that early pace. Still, it was well above the roughly MOP602 million daily average UBS cited for September.
Macau’s casino revenue fell 1.2% year-on-year in September. UBS said recent weakness among high-end players remained part of the market backdrop.
For the first 11 days of October, average daily revenue reached about MOP836 million. That compares with around MOP804 million per day during the first 12 days of October last year.
UBS said last year’s figures were affected by disruptions. A typhoon hit on October 5, 2025, and the Mid-Autumn Festival fell on October 6, which created a lower comparison base.
The bank said the month-to-date results came despite concerns over tax clawbacks tied to offshore trusts.
UBS had earlier linked September’s weakness in premium gaming to Chinese individual income tax rules on offshore trusts. These rules remained a concern in its latest review.
Gaming Segments Improve, but Forecast Sets Higher Bar
Even so, both main gaming segments improved. The bank estimated that the daily mass-market revenue run-rate rose 35% to 38% compared with September.
The daily VIP volume run-rate climbed 40% to 45% over the same period. VIP hold, the share of bets kept by casinos, ranged from 3.1% to 3.4%.
These figures separate growth in mass-market revenue from growth in VIP betting volume. Both pointed to stronger activity than the month before.
According to UBS, sell-side analysts expect Macau to average about MOP777 million in daily revenue for all of October. That would leave the month broadly unchanged from a year earlier.
To reach that average, Macau casinos would need to earn about MOP744 million per day over the remaining 20 days of the month.
That target is above the MOP729 million daily average recorded from October 5 to 11. Casinos would need a stronger daily run-rate than the latest weekly estimate to meet the consensus forecast.
