TLDR
- Citigroup forecasts Macau’s September gross gaming revenue (GGR) to rise 12% year-on-year to MOP20.5 billion ($2.55 billion)
- The first six days of September brought in roughly MOP3.8 billion, about 10% below August’s daily average
- VIP gaming volume fell 8% to 10% from August, while mass-market GGR dropped 10% to 12%
- A busy concert and sports calendar is expected to lift activity through the rest of the month
- August GGR fell 1.2% year-on-year but climbed 8.1% compared to July
Macau’s casino industry is set for growth in September, even though the month started slowly. Citigroup projects that gross gaming revenue, known as GGR, will rise 12% year-on-year to MOP20.5 billion, or $2.55 billion.
The forecast comes despite a quiet opening stretch. This softness is common in September, which sits just before China’s National Day Golden Week holiday.
During the first six days of the month, Macau casinos brought in about MOP3.8 billion, or $473 million. That works out to a daily average of roughly MOP633 million, or $78.8 million.
That daily figure was about 10% lower than August’s average of MOP706 million, or $87.9 million. Still, it came in 4% higher than the same period last year, when daily revenue averaged MOP610 million, or $76 million.
Citigroup said the slowdown reflects a normal seasonal pattern. September is often described as a shoulder month, a quieter stretch before the holiday rush begins in October.
VIP and Mass Market Trends
Industry sources told Citigroup that VIP gaming volume dropped between 8% and 10% from August. Mass-market GGR fell further, down between 10% and 12% over the same period.
The VIP hold rate, a measure of how much casinos keep from VIP bets, stayed close to normal levels. That suggests the dip in VIP revenue was tied to lower betting volume rather than unusual luck for the house.
Both segments tend to slow down during September because of fewer holidays and events early in the month. This pattern has shown up in past years as well.
Concerts and Events Set to Drive Growth
Citigroup kept its 12% growth forecast in place, pointing to a full lineup of concerts and events later in September. The brokerage expects these to bring more visitors and gaming activity to the city.
Scheduled performances include BABYMONSTER at The Venetian Arena, Super Junior-83z at Studio City Event Center, and TWS at The Londoner Arena. Large concerts like these often draw crowds from mainland China and other parts of Asia.
The city will also host the World Table Tennis Champions Macao 2026, sponsored by Galaxy Macau. Sports events of this scale tend to bring in visitors who also spend time at the gaming tables.
Casino operators are counting on these events to offset the quieter start to the month. Citigroup expects gaming activity to pick up as more visitors arrive for the shows and tournaments.
August offers useful context for the current forecast. Macau’s casino GGR that month reached MOP21.89 billion, or $2.72 billion, down 1.2% from a year earlier but up 8.1% from July.
That monthly increase gave the market some momentum heading into September’s slower period. Analysts are watching how the VIP and mass-market segments perform together as the month continues, since both play a role in the final GGR total.
