TLDR
- Moody’s expects Melco Resorts’ revenue to grow 4.5% in 2026 to $5.4 billion, then another 4% in 2027 to $5.6 billion.
- Macau’s overall casino market is forecast to grow 6% in 2026 and 4% to 5% in 2027.
- Adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise to $1.3 billion in 2026 and $1.4 billion in 2027.
- Melco Resorts’ debt to EBITDA ratio is expected to fall to 5.5 times by the end of 2026 and 5.0 times in 2027.
- Moody’s expects the company to resume dividend payments in early 2027 and finish a $590 million stock buyback program by 2028.
Moody’s Ratings expects Melco Resorts to earn more money over the next two years.
The credit agency forecasts revenue will grow 4.5% in 2026, reaching $5.4 billion.
For 2027, Moody’s expects another gain of 4%, bringing revenue to $5.6 billion.
These numbers come from a new credit opinion on Melco Resorts Finance, a subsidiary of Melco Resorts.
The report also showed the company earned $5.2 billion over the 12 months ending in June.
Macau’s Casino Market
Moody’s expects Macau’s overall casino revenue to rise by about 6% in 2026.
Growth is expected to slow to between 4% and 5% in 2027.
The agency pointed to more visitors from mainland China as a reason for the growth.
Melco Resorts is expected to hold close to 15% of Macau’s gaming market.
Concerts, sports events, and other shows are expected to keep drawing tourists to the region.
A new hotel at the company’s City of Dreams resort is also seen helping growth. Rooms there are opening in stages.
Profit And Debt Levels
Moody’s projects Melco Resorts’ adjusted EBITDA, a measure of profit, will reach $1.3 billion in 2026.
That would be up from $1.25 billion in 2025. EBITDA is expected to rise again to $1.4 billion in 2027.
The profit margin is expected to improve slightly to between 24% and 25%. Cost cutting efforts are expected to help.
In the first half of 2026, adjusted EBITDA came in at $612 million. That was down 2.5% from the same period last year.
The drop was linked to weaker high roller and table game results. Higher marketing spending in the second quarter also played a part.
Debt levels are expected to fall as well. The debt to EBITDA ratio is projected to drop to about 5.5 times by the end of 2026.
That figure stood at 5.9 times over the 12 months ending in June. The ratio could fall further to around 5.0 times in 2027.
Moody’s said this trend supports the current credit rating held by Melco Resorts Finance.
Total adjusted debt is expected to be $7.2 billion by the end of 2026. That is down from about $7.3 billion in June.
Debt is expected to drop again to $6.9 billion by the end of 2027. It has already fallen from a peak of $8.7 billion at the end of 2022.
Moody’s expects Melco Resorts to start paying dividends again in early 2027.
The company is also expected to finish a $590 million stock buyback plan between 2026 and 2028.
Melco Resorts runs casinos in Macau, Manila, and Cyprus. It opened a casino in Colombo in the third quarter of last year.
