TLDR
- Moody’s Ratings expects Asia gaming revenue to grow 5% to 6% over the next 12 to 18 months
- Macau is set to lead the region, with revenue growth of 6% in 2026 and 4-5% in 2027
- Southeast Asia faces slower growth because operators rely more on air travel and are more exposed to fuel prices
- Genting Bhd and Genting Singapore show mixed earnings outlooks for 2026, while NagaCorp stays steady
- Combined Macau casino earnings are expected to grow 6-7% in 2026, reaching $8.6 billion to $8.7 billion
Moody’s Ratings says gaming revenue across Asia will grow between 5% and 6% over the next 12 to 18 months. The ratings agency shared this outlook in a sector report released Tuesday.
The pace of growth will not be the same everywhere. Moody’s said it depends on how sensitive each market’s customers are to changes in fuel prices.
Macau Set to Lead Growth
Macau is expected to lead the region’s casino growth. Southeast Asia will likely see a slower pace by comparison.
Moody’s said Macau benefits from its closeness to mainland China. Chinese travelers are expected to choose short domestic flights, which helps keep visitor numbers steady.
The agency expects Macau’s gross gaming revenue to rise 6% in 2026. Growth is then expected to slow to 4-5% in 2027.
That would put Macau’s gaming revenue at around 90% of its 2019 level in 2026. It would reach 90-95% of that level in 2027.
The VIP betting segment in Macau has shrunk over the years. Moody’s expects it to stay at around 30% or less of total gaming revenue.
Moody’s said calmer competition among casino operators is helping. Property expansions and new openings are also expected to support earnings growth.
Combined earnings for Macau operators are expected to grow 6% to 7% in 2026. That would put the total between $8.6 billion and $8.7 billion.
Southeast Asia Faces Higher Costs
Southeast Asian casino operators depend more on flights to bring in visitors. This makes them more exposed to rising fuel prices than Macau operators.
Because of this, Moody’s expects revenue growth in Southeast Asia to stay in the single digits through 2026 and 2027.
Genting Bhd is expected to see its earnings grow to between MYR8.9 billion and MYR10.0 billion by 2026-2027. That is up from MYR8.2 billion in 2025, as the company builds out its casino in New York City.
Genting’s core Malaysia business, including its casino near Kuala Lumpur, is expected to stay stable. Higher costs are likely to cancel out any revenue gains there.
Genting Singapore is expected to see earnings fall about 5% in 2026. That would bring earnings down to SGD836 million, from SGD888 million in 2025, before recovering to SGD880 million in 2027.
NagaCorp is expected to hold steady, with earnings staying near $400 million a year. Moody’s pointed to steady visitor numbers and low operating costs in Phnom Penh.
On debt, Moody’s said most Macau operators should see their financial position improve mainly through earnings growth. Heavy spending and shareholder payouts will limit how much debt gets paid down directly.
SJM Holdings is expected to carry higher debt levels through 2026. The agency said this should ease as the company adds more gaming tables.
Genting’s group debt is expected to stay high through 2026 and 2027 due to heavy spending. NagaCorp, on the other hand, is expected to keep very low debt levels.
Moody’s said bond repayments for Macau operators are concentrated in 2028 and 2029. Those payments are expected to total between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion each year.
