TLDR
- A new Ipsos poll of 2,363 adults found 61% of Americans view prediction markets as gambling, while only 8% see them as investing
- Just 9% of respondents are confident prediction markets can prevent insider profiting
- 91% of Americans familiar with prediction markets consider event contracts “financially risky”
- Only 4% of Americans believe prediction markets are good for society
- Young men aged 18-24 are far more likely to use prediction and gambling platforms than the general public
The majority of Americans believe prediction markets are a form of gambling rather than investing, according to a new poll from the American Institute for Boys and Men.
The Ipsos survey, conducted for AIBM, polled a nationally representative sample of 2,363 adults. It also included an oversample of 447 men between the ages of 18 and 24.
The results were clear. About 61% of respondents said prediction markets are more like gambling. Only 8% viewed them as a form of investing.
AIBM commissioned the study to understand how prediction markets fit into the broader gambling landscape in America. The organization wanted real data on public attitudes toward these platforms.
Americans Have Little Confidence in Market Safeguards
The poll also found deep skepticism about corruption protections across financial platforms. Just 9% of all respondents said they were confident prediction markets could stop people with non-public information from profiting unfairly.
That number rose to 27% among people who actually use prediction markets. But even among users, 70% said they were not fully confident insider trading was being prevented.
Online sports betting platforms fared only slightly better at 13% confidence. The stock market scored highest at 30%, but that was still lower than AIBM expected.
AIBM policy lead Jonathan Cohen said the stock market was included as a baseline comparison. He said the low confidence numbers suggest users may simply accept insider activity as part of the deal.
Familiarity with prediction markets among the general public remains low. But among those who do know what they are, 91% consider event contracts financially risky. That number drops slightly to 88% among young men.
Former gambling journalist turned responsible gambling advocate Jessica Wellman pointed out the gap between how the industry presents itself and how the public understands these platforms.
Young Men Lead in Platform Usage
Usage of prediction markets is also low overall, but it is concentrated among younger men. In the past six months, 26% of men aged 18 to 24 reported using at least one sports betting, daily fantasy, prediction market, or other gambling platform.
That compares to just 14% of the general public over the same period.
Very few Americans think prediction markets benefit society. Just 4% of all respondents said they are good for society. Among young men, that figure was 7%.
Three percent of respondents said gambling in general and online sports betting are good for society.
When asked about regulation, most Americans said prediction markets should be managed alongside gambling at 59% or alongside investments at 52%. About 66% said leaving them completely unregulated would be a bad idea. Only about 25% supported an outright ban.
Cohen said there is still not enough data on who is actually using these platforms and why. He said the relationship between prediction market users, sportsbook users, and offshore gambling users is not well understood.
AIBM closed its report with a list of open questions for future research. These include who uses prediction markets, what harms they may cause, and whether they create new pathways into gambling behavior for young men.
The organization said advocates, journalists, and lawmakers have a chance to shape public understanding and regulatory frameworks before wider adoption takes hold. Cohen said the narrative around prediction markets is still largely unwritten.
