TLDR
- Polymarket bettors sent death threats to a military reporter, demanding he change his coverage of an Iranian missile strike on Israel to help them win bets from a $14 million prediction pool
- The reporter refused to alter his story and filed a police report, handing all threat messages to authorities
- U.S. lawmakers introduced the Death Bets Act to ban prediction markets involving war, assassinations, and human fatalities
- Polymarket banned the threatening users and removed a market asking users to bet on a nuclear weapon detonation
- Despite the controversy, Kalshi processed over $10 billion and Polymarket nearly $8 billion in trading volume in February alone
Gamblers on prediction platform Polymarket sent death threats to a military journalist after he reported on an Iranian missile strike near the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh on March 10.
The bettors had money riding on a $14 million prediction pool asking whether Iran would strike Israel on that date. The market’s rules stated that an intercepted missile would not count as a successful strike.
Reporter Emanuel Fabian wrote that the Iranian missile hit an open area near the city. Almost immediately, users flooded his messaging apps, social media accounts, and email inbox with threatening messages.
The bettors demanded that Fabian rewrite his article to claim Israeli forces had intercepted the weapon. One user threatened to kill him if he refused to change the story.
Fabian did not change his reporting. He relied on statements from military and rescue sources and stood by his original piece.
Lawmakers Respond With Proposed Bans
The incident caught the attention of politicians in Washington. Senator Adam Schiff and Representative Mike Levin introduced the Death Bets Act earlier this month to ban prediction markets involving war, assassinations, and human fatalities.
Senator Chris Murphy separately proposed banning wagers on government military actions. His proposal came after blockchain analysts found suspicious wallets making large profits by predicting American military strikes shortly before they occurred.
The proposals reflect growing concern in Congress about the types of events that prediction platforms allow users to bet on.
Polymarket responded by permanently banning the users who sent threats. The company said the behavior violated its terms of service and promised to share account details with authorities.
The platform also recently removed a market that allowed users to bet on a potential nuclear weapon detonation. That market had drawn heavy criticism before it was taken down.
Prediction Markets Still Growing Fast
Kalshi faced its own controversy in late February when assassins targeted the Iranian Supreme Leader. The platform used a specific rule to settle those wagers based on prices from right before the fatal event took place.
Despite the controversies, the prediction market industry continues to grow at a rapid pace.
Kalshi processed more than $10 billion in trading volume during February. Polymarket handled nearly $8 billion over the same period.
Both platforms appear to be on track to set new revenue records this month.
The growth raises questions about where platforms should draw the line on the types of events open for betting.
Traditional sportsbook operators and iGaming companies have largely stayed away from geopolitical event markets.
Sports, entertainment, and election betting remain the core offerings for most operators in the space.
The Death Bets Act and related proposals are still working their way through Congress. No vote has been scheduled on either bill as of this writing.
Kalshi and Polymarket both processed a combined $18 billion in trading volume in February 2026 alone.
