TLDR
- Polymarket has recorded more than US$500,000 in trading volume on Toronto’s Oct. 26 mayoral election, even though the platform is banned in Ontario.
- Canada’s investment regulator, CIRO, has updated its rules to prohibit event contracts tied to sports and entertainment outcomes.
- Contracts based on elections and other political outcomes remain banned for regulated Canadian dealers.
- Interactive Brokers Canada and Wealthsimple are the only CIRO members approved to offer regulated event contracts.
- A team led by former Vanguard Canada CEO Atul Tiwari has applied to CIRO to launch a new prediction market called VerdX.
Polymarket, an offshore prediction market that is banned in Ontario, has recorded more than US$500,000 in trading volume on Toronto’s mayoral election. The vote takes place on Oct. 26.
The activity comes as Canadian regulators tighten rules on prediction markets offered through online brokers. Political contracts, such as those tied to elections, are not allowed for regulated Canadian dealers.
Regulators Expand List of Banned Contracts
The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) has updated its terms and conditions to ban event contracts tied to sports or entertainment outcomes. Covers first reported the change.
In an Oct. 16 statement, CIRO said it does not consider it appropriate to approve applications from its investment dealer members to trade these contracts. The regulator said it has now listed them as prohibited in its updated terms.
The move follows joint guidance issued by CIRO and the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) on Aug. 27. It also builds on framework updates the two bodies released in March.
Under CIRO rules, approved dealers can only offer event contracts tied to economic forecasts, environmental indicators and financial markets. These contracts must have a minimum maturity of 30 days.
Contracts based on elections and other political outcomes remain strictly banned. CIRO is also blocking dealers from presenting or promoting contracts that are not allowed, such as political bets.
The regulator said this rule aims to stop clients from mistaking those products for approved Canadian offerings.
Few Licensed Options in Canada
Right now, Interactive Brokers Canada and Wealthsimple are the only CIRO members approved to offer regulated event contracts. Wealthsimple launched its product, Wealthsimple Predict, in July after receiving initial regulatory approval.
That list may grow. According to The Globe and Mail, a team led by former Vanguard Canada CEO Atul Tiwari has applied to CIRO to register as an investment dealer.
The group plans to launch VerdX, a regulated Canadian platform focused on event contracts. If approved, it would join Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers in the domestic market.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s Toronto election market has drawn strong trading despite Canadian limits on political contracts. The platform has been blocked in Ontario.
It is not clear who is placing the trades. The volume could come from foreign traders, Canadians getting around location blocks, or both, since Polymarket’s public data does not show where users are based.
Current odds point to a very close race. Challenger Brad Bradford holds 50% odds, with $201,762 in trading volume on his contract.
Incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow sits at 49% odds, with $258,735 in volume. Toronto voters head to the polls on Oct. 26.
