TLDR
- Dutch regulator KSA has ordered Polymarket to stop operating in the Netherlands or face fines of €420,000 per week
- The maximum penalty is capped at €840,000, with possible revenue-based fines to follow
- Dutch users bet over $32 million on the October 2025 Dutch elections through the platform
- Polymarket argues it is a prediction market, not a gambling site, but KSA disagrees
- Polymarket has faced similar regulatory action in the US, where it was fined $1.4 million
The Netherlands gambling authority has ordered prediction market platform Polymarket to stop operating in the country. The regulator, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), says the site is running illegal gambling activity without a license.
Polymarket is owned by Adventure One QSS Inc. and describes itself as “the world’s largest prediction market.” The site lets users bet on the outcome of political events, sports, elections, and global conflicts.
KSA has threatened a weekly fine of €420,000 if Polymarket continues to operate in the Netherlands. The penalty is capped at a maximum of €840,000, but the regulator has warned that larger revenue-based fines could follow.
The KSA says it contacted Polymarket about its illegal activity before issuing the order. Despite that contact, the platform made no changes and remained accessible to Dutch users.
A KSA supervisor even placed a bet on D66 leader Rob Jetten to confirm how easily Dutch residents could access the site. The test confirmed the platform was fully operational for users in the Netherlands.
The KSA’s focus on Polymarket grew after Dutch users bet heavily on the October 2025 parliamentary elections. Users could wager on which party would win the most seats or who would become Prime Minister.
Dutch gamblers placed more than $32 million on the elections through Polymarket. Over $10 million was bet on the PVV party, and nearly $6 million on D66. The market for most parliamentary seats alone attracted more than $27 million in bets.
Why KSA Says Polymarket Is Illegal
Polymarket argues that prediction markets are not gambling. The company says its markets produce more accurate forecasts than polls or traditional research.
KSA rejects that argument. Under Dutch law, betting on political or news events counts as gambling, regardless of how the platform labels itself.
“These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders,” said Ella Seijsener, Director of Licensing and Supervision at the KSA.
Seijsener also pointed to the social risks of political prediction markets, including their potential to influence elections.
Polymarket’s History With Regulators
This is not the first time Polymarket has faced regulatory pressure. In the United States, the company was fined $1.4 million for operating without a gambling license.
Those US legal challenges were later paused during former President Donald Trump’s administration. Trump’s son also invested $10 million in the company.
In Belgium, internet providers already block access to Polymarket. No such block exists in the Netherlands.
The KSA estimates around 50,000 people searched for Polymarket in December 2025 alone. A spokesperson said that figure is likely an underestimate, adding that the site appears to be growing among Dutch users.
The Dutch government has also proposed a wider ban on online gambling advertising as part of a broader tightening of its gambling laws.
