TLDR
- Polymarket is reviewing dozens of newly created wallets tied to bets on Israel’s parliamentary election.
- More than 600 wallets were created on a single day to bet on Netanyahu or Likud before polls closed on Tuesday.
- Bubblemaps found 101 accounts funded for the first time on election day, before voting ended.
- Combined profits of more than $100,000 were withdrawn after exit polls came out.
- No evidence has shown that insider information was used or that the vote was manipulated.
Polymarket is investigating suspicious trading tied to Israel’s parliamentary election, according to Bloomberg. The prediction market’s internal team said it is reviewing dozens of newly created wallets linked to the betting.
The trades centered on bets that Benjamin Netanyahu or his Likud party would win. Many of the wallets were created shortly before polls closed on Tuesday.
For months, prediction markets had favored Gadi Eisenkot to win the election. That changed on election night, when Netanyahu’s odds jumped.
How the Wallets Were Flagged
A Bloomberg analysis of Polymarket’s blockchain data found that more than 600 new wallets were created on a single day. These wallets placed bets on Netanyahu or Likud before voting ended.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps also looked at the activity. It found 101 accounts that were funded for the first time on election day, before the polls closed.
After exit polls were released, these accounts withdrew combined profits of more than $100,000. The timing of the new wallets and the quick withdrawals drew attention from researchers.
Polymarket runs on a public blockchain. This means anyone can view the trades and study patterns that may point to coordinated activity.
After polls closed, Netanyahu’s chance of winning on Polymarket rose to 54%, according to Bloomberg. Eisenkot’s chance fell to 23%.
That was a sharp change from earlier in the race. Eisenkot had led on prediction markets for months before the vote.
What Investigators Know So Far
Investigators have not shown that anyone used confidential information to place the bets. Bloomberg noted that suspicious trading patterns alone are not proof of insider trading.
Profitable bets can also come from independent analysis. Traders can reach the same conclusions through their own research of public information.
No evidence has been presented that links the bets to any tampering with the vote count. There is also no evidence that the bets affected the election results.
Prediction markets let users bet on the outcome of real-world events, such as elections. Prices on these markets reflect what traders think the odds are for each result.
Polymarket’s review is focused on the dozens of new wallets tied to the election trading. The company is examining how the accounts were set up and used.
Outside firms are now running their own checks. Bubblemaps and Polysights, two analytics companies, have launched separate examinations of the transactions.
Their findings could add more detail on who created the wallets and how the bets were placed. Polymarket’s own review of the newly created wallets is ongoing.
