TLDR
- A Polymarket wallet named VelvetNova27 bet about $818,000 against the CLARITY Act passing in 2026.
- The trader bought over 1.05 million No shares at an average price near 77.7 cents.
- Polymarket now shows only a 14% chance the bill becomes law this year.
- A second wallet, KatsuManager87, placed about $676,800 on the same side.
- The Senate holds a key procedural vote on the bill on September 15.
A trader on the prediction market Polymarket has placed a large bet against a major US crypto bill.
The wallet, known as VelvetNova27, is new to the platform. It bought more than 1.05 million No shares tied to H.R. 3633, known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025.
The average price paid was about 77.7 cents per share. That works out to a wager of roughly $818,130.
The bet is already showing a paper profit. Polymarket currently prices the odds of the bill becoming law this year at around 14%.
That is a sharp shift from earlier in the year. At one point, the market gave the bill more than an 80% chance of passing.
Nearly $1.5 Million Against the Bill
VelvetNova27 is not the only trader taking this position.
Another new wallet, KatsuManager87, has placed about $676,800 in bets against the bill across three trades. Together, the two wallets have put close to $1.5 million on the same outcome.
There is no public evidence linking the two accounts. There is also no evidence either trader has access to private information about the bill’s progress.
Large bets like these can move prices on their own. A big order can shift the displayed odds even if it does not reflect what most traders think.
Still, the size of these bets stands out. The market has recorded about $11 million in total trading volume on this question since January.
Senate Vote Set for September 15
The next major test for the bill comes in the Senate.
Majority Leader John Thune filed a motion to move the bill forward before the August recess. That procedural vote is set for 2:15 p.m. on September 15.
This vote would not decide the bill’s fate directly. It would only decide whether the Senate can begin formal debate on it.
The bill needs 60 votes to clear that step. Lawmakers have not yet agreed on several issues.
These include rules on government officials holding crypto, how stablecoin rewards should be treated, and rules meant to stop illicit finance through digital assets.
Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego has said a deal is still possible. He has suggested stronger ethics rules may be needed to win enough votes.
The White House has also pushed for progress. President Donald Trump asked lawmakers on August 19 to pass what he called a fair version of the bill.
For now, the prediction market is not pricing in much chance of that happening. At 14 cents per Yes share, traders are betting the bill will miss its December 31 deadline.
The $818,000 bet from VelvetNova27 is one of the largest signals of that view so far. The next real test comes when the Senate returns and holds its vote on September 15.
