TLDR
- Polymarket removed markets where users could bet on nuclear weapon detonation
- The removal follows the ongoing Iran conflict and criticism over war-related insider trading
- A 2023 contract implied up to 19% chance of nuclear detonation; a 2025 one traded near 12%
- The 2025 contract saw over $1.7 million in trading volume
- The CFTC is reviewing rules that could ban regulated exchanges from listing war and terrorism event contracts
Polymarket has removed prediction markets that let users bet on the probability of a nuclear weapon detonating. The platform made no public announcement about the removal.
The contracts had been running for years. Users could assign a probability to whether a nuclear weapon would detonate before a specific date. Every contract resolved to “No.”
In 2023, one contract briefly implied a 19% chance of nuclear detonation before year-end. A later contract expiring in June 2025 traded near 12%.
These were not small markets. The 2025 contract alone recorded over $1.7 million in trading volume. The 2023 version drew close to $700,000 in wagers.
Insider Trading Concerns Drive Criticism
The removal follows a separate controversy on the platform. A trader reportedly made over $400,000 betting on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s removal shortly before a U.S. operation led to his capture.
That raised questions about whether insiders could use prediction markets to profit ahead of military events. Critics argued the markets could reward people with advance knowledge of government actions.
Those same concerns are now being applied to the Iran conflict. Questions have been raised about whether any traders held an information edge before hostilities began.
Polymarket has not commented publicly on either controversy.
CFTC Reviews Rules on War Event Contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules in 2024 that would stop regulated exchanges from listing event contracts tied to war, terrorism, or assassination.
The agency described these categories as contrary to the public interest. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has said clearer guidance on prediction markets is coming soon.
No final rules have been published as of March 2026. Polymarket operates outside traditional regulated exchange structures, but regulatory pressure appears to be influencing its decisions.
The nuclear detonation contracts no longer appear on the platform. Polymarket has not said whether the removal is permanent.
