TLDR
- Polymarket says its annualized revenue run rate has passed $1.8 billion, up from $1 billion in June.
- Notional volume on its U.S. platform reached $14.5 billion in October, more than triple the level four months earlier.
- The FIFA World Cup and the start of the NFL season helped lift trading activity.
- Investors recently committed $1 billion, valuing the company at an estimated $21 billion.
- The company faces a CFTC probe, a Democrat-controlled Congress in January, and possible Supreme Court action.
Polymarket’s U.S. exchange is now a major driver of the company’s growth. The prediction market operator said its annualized revenue run rate has passed $1.8 billion, according to figures shared with CNBC on Tuesday, November 10.
That figure is well above the $1 billion run rate the company disclosed in June. The jump came in about five months.
An annualized revenue run rate takes recent revenue and projects it over a full year. It is not the same as reported annual revenue, and Polymarket, which is privately held, does not publish full financial results.
U.S. Platform Volume Climbs
Polymarket launched its U.S. platform in May. The exchange runs separately from the company’s broader international platform.
Notional volume on the U.S. platform reached $14.5 billion in October. That is more than triple the $4 billion recorded on the exchange four months earlier.
Large sporting events helped push activity higher. The FIFA World Cup drew heavy trading over the summer, and the NFL season started in September.
Sports event contracts are the most heavily traded products on yes/no exchanges like Polymarket. Both events fell within the period when U.S. volume rose sharply.
The revenue update follows a busy year of fundraising. Investors recently committed $1 billion to the company, lifting its estimated valuation to $21 billion.
Polymarket reportedly raised that $1 billion in August. The round is said to include $300 million from 1789 Capital, the venture capital firm of Donald Trump Jr.
An earlier round in April was reportedly led by a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange. A consortium led by hedge fund D.E. Shaw reportedly added another $400 million.
There has been speculation that some investors are concerned about decisions by founder and CEO Shayne Coplan. In late October, reports said Polymarket fired former Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber during an internal investigation into alleged misconduct.
Regulatory Questions Remain
The company still faces challenges on several fronts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator for prediction markets, is investigating Polymarket’s advertising practices.
Political pressure on the industry could also grow. Democrats will control both chambers of Congress starting in January, which has raised concern among supporters of prediction markets.
Polymarket may face extra attention on that front. Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to the company.
The Supreme Court is another open question for the industry heading into 2027. There is concern the court could strike down sports event contracts, which make up the largest share of trading on these exchanges.
For now, the Supreme Court has not agreed to take any related cases. That could change in the months ahead.
