TLDR
- Six fresh Polymarket wallets made $1.2 million betting on US strikes against Iran hours before they happened
- The largest single bet turned $61,000 into $493,000 — an 821% return
- Blockchain data shows identical trade timestamps and minimal trading histories across the winning wallets
- The CFTC issued an insider trading warning just three days before the strikes
- Lawmakers are pushing legislation to ban prediction market bets tied to military action
Six newly created accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket made $1.2 million betting that the US would strike Iran by February 28, 2026. The accounts were funded within 24 hours of the actual strikes, which took place on that same date.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged the wallets after reviewing on-chain data from Polymarket’s order book. The firm’s CEO said the evidence was “convincing enough to share.”
The largest single position in the cluster turned roughly $61,000 into $493,000. That’s an 821% return in just a few days.
Two of the winning wallets, named “Lettucehead718” and “suffix-295,” placed trades at identical timestamps on February 27. Both had traded fewer than 10 markets in their entire history.
Analysts say the wallets also placed small bets on nearby dates — a tactic described as “decoy” trades designed to make the activity look like normal speculation.
Of the top 20 holders of winning shares on the February 28 market, all held positions between $42,000 and $62,000. That tight clustering suggests a single operator spread funds across multiple accounts.
A separate account called “Magamyman” made $553,000 betting on whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be killed. Khamenei died in Israeli strikes over the weekend. Whether this account is connected to the six-wallet cluster is unclear.
Total suspected insider gains from February 28 may exceed $1.75 million.
Regulators React
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a formal advisory on February 25 — three days before the strikes — warning that insider trading on event contracts violates US law. The warning came too late for the February 28 bets.
Enforcement faces real barriers. Polymarket is incorporated offshore and geofences US users, though that restriction is widely bypassed. The CFTC has roughly one-eighth the staff of the SEC.
At least 12 senators wrote to the CFTC on February 24 urging a ban on prediction market contracts tied to military action. Senator Chris Murphy called for legislation after the strikes. Representative Ritchie Torres introduced H.R. 7004, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, which would make trading on classified government information in prediction markets a federal crime. Over 30 House Democrats have co-sponsored the bill.
A Growing Pattern
This is not the first time suspicious trades have appeared on Polymarket ahead of major events. In June 2025, an Israeli reservist allegedly leaked classified strike plans to a civilian who bet on the outcome. The two were indicted in February 2026 — the first criminal charges tied to prediction market insider trading.
In January 2026, a mystery trader made $410,000 betting on the removal of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. That case is under CFTC investigation.
The February 28 Iran contracts attracted $90 million in volume alone. The broader Iran market family drew $529 million total.
The identities behind the suspicious wallets remain unknown.
