TLDR
- Two large Polymarket traders took opposite sides of Thursday’s Seahawks vs. Broncos game in one transaction on Oct. 13.
- BreakTheBank spent $213,879 on 500,528 Broncos shares at 42 cents each.
- surfandturf paid $290,000 for 500,000 Seahawks shares at 58 cents each.
- BreakTheBank leads Polymarket’s weekly profit leaderboard with $2.13 million, while surfandturf lost about $718,000 this week.
- The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Oct. 15 in Denver, with the market giving Seattle a 57% chance on Wednesday.
Two of the biggest sports traders on Polymarket have taken opposite sides of Thursday night’s NFL game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. Together, their bets created a pot of about $500,000.
The trade happened in a single transaction at 22:34 UTC on Oct. 13. One trader is the top earner on the platform this week. The other has lost more than $700,000 over the same period.
How the Polymarket Trade Came Together
An account called BreakTheBank bought 500,528 Broncos shares at 42 cents each. It spent $213,879 on the position.
The order was filled by six limit orders from an account called surfandturf. Those orders were waiting on Polymarket’s public order book. surfandturf bought 500,000 Seahawks shares at 58 cents, paying $290,000.
Polymarket shares are binary contracts. Each one pays $1 if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not.
If Denver wins, BreakTheBank would clear about $287,000. The account has added a few hundred shares since the trade and now holds 500,812.
If Seattle wins, surfandturf would clear about $207,000. It sold about 7,100 shares at around 57 cents and held about 492,900 shares on Wednesday.
Each account is now the largest holder on its side of the moneyline market. About 537,000 shares have traded in that market in total.
A Tale of Two Traders
BreakTheBank was created in January. It sits first on Polymarket’s weekly and monthly profit leaderboards, at $2.13 million and $3.57 million. It is up $7.04 million all-time.
This week, the account made about $913,000 on the Buffalo Bills’ 37-34 overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. It also made $458,182 on Barcelona’s 4-1 Champions League win at Galatasaray on Tuesday.
surfandturf was created in April. It is up about $67,000 all-time after losing about $718,000 this week.
The account lost $413,671 backing the Atlanta Falcons, who fell 30-23 to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. It also lost $61,000 on the Rams in the game BreakTheBank won.
The two traders have faced off before. On Sept. 27, surfandturf lost $515,803 on the Rams against the Broncos, while BreakTheBank made about $306,000 backing Denver.
In its recent trades, surfandturf bought only one side of each market. That points to a directional bettor, who picks a side and wins or loses with the result. A market maker, by contrast, posts both buy and sell orders and profits from the gap between prices.
Large single-game bets can change quickly. On Oct. 11, another Polymarket account lost a $147,000 Eagles bet to a 57-yard field goal as time expired.
The market had Seattle as a 57% favorite on Wednesday. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 15, in Denver.
