TLDR
- Kalshi and Polymarket are both in talks with investors about raising funds at roughly $20 billion valuations
- Both companies were valued at around half that amount late last year, with Kalshi at $11 billion and Polymarket at $9 billion
- Kalshi has crossed $1 billion in revenue run rate, now reportedly around $1.5 billion
- New legislation introduced Friday would restrict both platforms from offering markets on war and sports
- Both companies face scrutiny over aggressive college marketing and questionable trades, including bets on Jeff Bezos’ whereabouts
The two biggest prediction market companies in the United States are looking to double their valuations in new funding rounds.
Kalshi and Polymarket have both been talking to potential investors about raising money at around $20 billion valuations. The discussions are still in early stages and may not result in deals.
Both companies were valued at roughly half that amount late last year. Kalshi hit an $11 billion valuation in December. Polymarket reached $9 billion in October.
Kalshi raised $1 billion in December from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. The company has since crossed $1 billion in revenue run rate.
One source said Kalshi’s annualized revenue is now around $1.5 billion.
Regulatory Challenges Mount for Both Platforms
The companies face growing scrutiny from lawmakers. U.S. Representatives Blake Moore and Salud Carbajal introduced legislation on Friday that would restrict what markets the platforms can offer.
The proposed law would block Kalshi and Polymarket from offering bets on war and sports. Both platforms currently allow bets on the U.S. striking Iran and the ouster of Iran’s supreme leader.
Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved it as the first regulated exchange for prediction markets in 2020.
The platform offers bets on politics, sports, the economy, and pop culture. It has helped fuel a new wave of sports wagering in the U.S.
Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan. Its platform is currently off-limits to U.S. users, though anyone with a VPN can access it.
The company plans to release a domestically-regulated version of its app this year. Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, which publishes The Wall Street Journal.
College Marketing Draws Criticism
Both companies have been aggressively targeting college students. This strategy has led to some questionable trading activity.
Members of Jeff Bezos’ stepson’s fraternity placed a flurry of bets on Bezos’ whereabouts during the Super Bowl. Both platforms have flooded social media with ads aimed at young users.
Kalshi and Polymarket have courted college fraternities and groups directly. In one case, Polymarket gave a fraternity thousands of dollars in cash in exchange for signing up new users.
The New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket in October. This deal helped push the company’s valuation to $9 billion.
There are no guarantees either company will land on their target $20 billion valuations. Rising scrutiny of their businesses could affect the fundraising talks.
The proposed legislation from Moore and Carbajal was introduced on Friday and would restrict market topics for both platforms.
