TLDR
- NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is treating prediction markets the same as traditional sportsbooks under the league’s integrity framework
- Silver called Giannis Antetokounmpo’s investment in Kalshi “minuscule” and within collectively bargained rules
- The NHL and MLS have signed commercial deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, while the NFL, NBA, and MLB remain cautious
- Kalshi hit a daily record of over $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday, up 2,700% year-over-year
- The core legal fight centers on one word: “gaming,” and how the CFTC defines it under the Commodity Exchange Act
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said his league views prediction markets the same way it views traditional sports betting companies. He made the comments around All-Star Weekend in Los Angeles.
Silver said the NBA is applying its existing sports-betting integrity framework to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. He noted the issue will likely be settled by the courts and Congress.
Silver also addressed Giannis Antetokounmpo’s investment in Kalshi. He said the investment is “much smaller than 1%,” which keeps it within the limits set by the league’s collective bargaining agreement with the Players Association.
Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts on future events, priced between $0 and $1. Unlike sportsbooks, the platform doesn’t take the other side of the bet — traders are matched with each other.
Kalshi set a daily trading record on Super Bowl Sunday, topping $1 billion in volume. That was a 2,700% increase compared to the same day the previous year.
The platforms are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not by state governments. That puts them in a different legal category than sportsbooks, which are regulated state by state.
The key legal question is whether prediction markets count as “gaming” under the Commodity Exchange Act. Multiple court cases are working through the system, and the matter is expected to reach the Supreme Court.
How Other Leagues Are Responding
The NHL moved first, signing multi-year deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket in October 2025. Under those agreements, the NHL can reject specific contracts and both platforms agreed to integrity provisions.
MLS followed in January 2026, announcing a partnership with Polymarket. The league said the deal includes integrity safeguards for MLS and Leagues Cup matches.
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said the league would consider being “in business” with prediction markets, depending on how regulation develops. He noted that federal CFTC oversight could create a consistent national standard.
The NFL has stopped short of any deal. Executive Vice President Jeff Miller told the House Committee on Agriculture in December that the NFL has no plans to participate. However, he later called the prediction market space “innovative” and said the league would revisit the issue.
NBA’s Gambling Integrity Background
The NBA’s caution comes against a backdrop of ongoing gambling investigations. In 2024, the league permanently banned former Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter.
Federal charges were filed in October 2025 against Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier, Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups, and former player Damon Jones. Authorities said last month they are expanding the investigation to additional games.
The NBA has not linked those cases to its stance on prediction markets. The CEOs of both Polymarket and Kalshi spoke at the NBA’s closed-door All-Star Tech Summit, alongside executives from FanDuel, DraftKings, and MGM Resorts.
