TLDR
- TikTok now requires prediction market ads to use “trading” language rather than “betting” language to qualify for approval.
- DraftKings, Novig and Polymarket have launched celebrity ad campaigns using trading terms like “trade” instead of “bet.”
- The American Gaming Association estimates prediction markets spent close to $200 million on marketing between January and July 2026.
- Legal experts say the trading versus betting language ties into a jurisdictional fight between state regulators and the CFTC.
- Researchers say the words used may shape how people view the risk of these transactions, even if the underlying activity looks similar to sports betting.
TikTok has drawn a clear line between prediction market advertising and sports betting advertising, and the difference comes down to a single word choice.
The platform expanded its ad policy in July 2026 to allow prediction market ads in 17 markets, including the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. But approval is not automatic.
Advertisers must work with a TikTok sales representative to get permission, and one factor the platform weighs is whether a company describes its product as trading or betting.
Companies that use financial-trading or event contract language may qualify. Companies that refer to users placing bets are excluded from the prediction market ad category.
Celebrity Campaigns Lean on Trading Language
The policy comes as football season brings a wave of new prediction market advertising. DraftKings launched a campaign called “Take Your Game Anywhere” featuring Kevin Hart and Nick Jonas on a road trip across state lines.
In its press release, DraftKings described the pair as “placing a bet” in New Jersey and “making a trade” once they reached California, where sports betting is not legal.
Novig has run a national campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney that calls its product a “sports trading experience.” Polymarket has partnered with LeBron James, Eli Manning, Derek Jeter, Sue Bird and Spike Lee for a similar push.
The American Gaming Association estimates prediction markets spent nearly $200 million on marketing between January and July 2026.
Why the Wording Carries Legal Weight
Stephen Piepgrass, a partner at Troutman Pepper Locke, told Gambling Insider the terminology has real regulatory meaning. States that oppose prediction markets argue the activity is gambling, while the CFTC treats it as regulated event contracts.
“By identifying these transactions as ‘trades’ rather than ‘bets,’ platforms are effectively espousing the CFTC’s view,” Piepgrass said.
He added that companies could face enforcement risk if their marketing language does not match how they treat the product for legal purposes.
Marla Royne Stafford, a marketing professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said platform rules like TikTok’s give companies a strong reason to adopt trading language beyond just that one app.
“Financial terminology could help these companies reach people who might be reluctant to describe themselves as sports bettors,” she said.
A survey from the American Gaming Association found 28% of sports event contract users described their activity as investing, compared with 9% of traditional sportsbook users.
Shane Kraus, a psychology professor who studies behavioral addiction at UNLV, said the words used can shape how people see risk, even when the behavior looks similar to gambling.
“Whether an app says ‘buy,’ ‘trade,’ or ‘bet’ matters because terminology can shape consumers’ expectations and perceptions of risk,” Kraus said.
Kraus said he is more focused on what people actually do on these platforms, including how often they participate and how much money they risk, than on what the activity is called.
Prediction markets like ProphetX and Novig have also moved away from traditional sports odds toward percentage-based pricing following CFTC guidance issued in August 2026.
