TLDR
- Tradeweb Markets (TW) stock rose 2.5% after announcing a partnership with Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market
- Tradeweb made a minority investment in Kalshi as part of the deal
- The partnership will embed Kalshi’s real-time event probability data into Tradeweb’s trading platform
- The companies plan to build the first institutional-focused marketplace for event contracts
- Initial integration covers macroeconomic releases, Fed policy, elections, and other key policy outcomes
Tradeweb Markets stock climbed 2.5% on Thursday after the company announced a strategic partnership with Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market in the US.
The deal pairs Tradeweb’s electronic trading infrastructure with Kalshi’s real-time event probability data. Tradeweb also made a minority financial investment in Kalshi as part of the agreement.
Tradeweb operates electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities, and money markets. The platform handles more than $2.6 trillion in notional value traded on average each day and serves over 3,000 institutional clients across more than 85 countries.
Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. These include economic data releases, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and political elections.
The first phase of the partnership will embed Kalshi’s real-time event probabilities directly into Tradeweb’s rates and credit marketplaces. This will be available through user interfaces, APIs, and data-download tools.
Tradeweb CEO Billy Hult said prediction markets have the potential to help institutions assess macro risk and allocate capital more effectively. He said the company believes the institutional trading stack will evolve to pair high-quality event data with modern market structure.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said he saw demand for prediction markets from institutional investors firsthand a decade ago during Brexit and election cycles. He said adoption requires scale, regulation, trust, and liquidity, and that Kalshi now has all of those in place.
Building an Institutional Event Contract Marketplace
Beyond data integration, the two companies plan to explore building a dedicated portal for institutional event contract trading. This would give large investors direct access to standardized contracts tied to macroeconomic and policy outcomes.
Tradeweb would act as the institutional front end for this potential new marketplace. The goal is to create infrastructure that meets the standards expected by institutional trading firms.
New Analytics Tools in Development
The companies also plan to co-develop analytics tools that combine Kalshi’s event probabilities with Tradeweb’s existing pricing, liquidity, and macro-intelligence datasets.
These tools are designed to support forecasting, risk management, and pricing models for institutional clients. The integration is intended to help traders incorporate forward-looking signals into their strategies.
Tradeweb was founded in 1996 and provides access to more than 50 products across institutional, wholesale, retail, and corporate markets. The company’s stock trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker TW.
As of the announcement on February 19, 2026, both companies confirmed the partnership is live and the first phase of data integration is underway.
