TLDR
- Commercial gaming revenue hit a record $7.06 billion in May, up 4.6% year over year.
- Tribal gaming reported record fiscal year 2025 revenue of $46.2 billion, up 5.3%.
- The American Gaming Association says prediction markets have cost states more than $1.21 billion in tax revenue.
- Tribes have filed lawsuits against operators like Kalshi over exclusivity agreements.
- Prediction markets captured about 27% of comparable World Cup betting activity, up from 9% earlier in the year.
The U.S. gaming industry is reporting record revenue at the same time trade groups and tribal organizations are warning that prediction markets could hurt their business.
New data from the American Gaming Association and the National Indian Gaming Commission show both commercial and tribal gaming hit record highs this year.
The reports do not prove that prediction markets have pulled money away from regulated sportsbooks. They also do not rule it out.
Commercial and Tribal Revenue Both Climb
Commercial gaming brought in $7.06 billion in May. That is a 4.6% increase from the same month last year.
Through the first five months of 2026, commercial gaming revenue reached $34.0 billion. That marks 6.4% growth compared to last year.
Sports betting revenue specifically dropped 1.8% in May compared to a year earlier. The AGA says prediction markets may be partly responsible for that decline.
Still, sports betting revenue from January through May grew 8.5% compared to the same period in 2025.
Tribal gaming also grew. The National Indian Gaming Commission reported $46.2 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2025. That is a 5.3% jump from the year before, and the highest total on record for Indian gaming.
Seven of the agency’s eight regions saw growth. Only the Rapid City region reported a slight decline.
Pennsylvania showed a similar pattern. Combined iGaming and sports betting revenue there surpassed slot machine and table game revenue for the first time. Sports betting revenue rose 35.9% for the year to $662.90 million.
Opposition To Prediction Markets Grows
The American Gaming Association has pushed Congress and regulators to clarify that sports event contracts do not fall under commodities law.
The group argues that prediction market operators can offer sports betting nationwide without state licenses or taxes. It has tracked what it estimates as $1.21 billion in lost state tax revenue.
Tribal groups have filed lawsuits against operators including Kalshi. They argue prediction markets violate exclusivity deals protected under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.
States including Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, Minnesota, New York and New Mexico have taken legal action against prediction market operators.
David Bean, chairman of the Indian Gaming Association, told a House Agriculture Subcommittee hearing that national numbers can hide regional losses. He said some tribes and regions are losing business even as overall totals rise.
Congress has also opened hearings and introduced more than two dozen bills related to sports event contracts.
The World Cup showed strong demand for both traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets. DraftKings said the World Cup Final was the most bet-on soccer match in its history, drawing more than 2 million bets.
GeoComply, which verifies bettor locations, recorded 160.6 million geolocation checks during the tournament’s opening week.
At the same time, prediction markets generated more than $50 billion in trading volume in June, based on a Macquarie report tied to World Cup activity. H2 Gambling Capital estimated prediction markets made up about 27% of comparable U.S. sports betting during the tournament, up from 9% at the start of the year.
Much of that growth came from states where regulated online sports betting is not legal, according to Bloomberg. That gives prediction markets access to customers licensed sportsbooks cannot reach.
Legal disputes between states, tribes and prediction market operators remain unresolved across multiple courts. Many expect the issue could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
