TLDR
- The Wisconsin Elections Commission says trading election prediction contracts may count as an illegal bet under state law.
- Voters who trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket could be barred from voting in that same election.
- Wisconsin Statute § 6.03(2) disqualifies voters who make a bet tied to an election outcome.
- Kalshi and Polymarket reject the Commission’s interpretation and call it dangerous to democracy.
- Wisconsin is fighting prediction markets on several legal fronts, including a lawsuit and a tribal gaming dispute.
The Wisconsin Elections Commission has issued a warning to residents who trade election prediction contracts. The Commission says this activity could count as a bet under state law.
That means anyone who trades on these contracts might lose the right to vote in that same election. The warning comes from a legal memo the Commission approved on July 9.
Staff directed the Commission to inform voters about the risk. Under state law, a person can face a felony charge for voting after placing this kind of bet.
What the Commission Found
Wisconsin Statute 6.03(2) disqualifies voters who become interested in a bet tied to an election result. The Commission believes trading on prediction markets fits that description.
Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe explained the goal of the warning. She said voters need to understand they cannot legally bet on an election and then vote in it.
Wolfe said the Commission cannot police people using these trading platforms. But she said residents should know the possible consequences before they trade.
The memo defines a bet as an agreement where one side wins or loses money based on chance. Staff wrote that a trader who profits or loses money based on an election outcome fits that description.
The Commission did not say whether trading on these platforms is illegal on its own. It only concluded that trading may block a person from voting in that same race.
Prediction Market Companies Push Back
Kalshi disagreed with the Commission’s conclusion. A company spokesperson said the warning could scare users away from voting.
The spokesperson said this could count as voter suppression. They argued that even a small drop in turnout could change an election result.
Polymarket gave a shorter response. A spokesperson said the company would respond through the legal process.
Both companies argue that their contracts are financial products, not gambling. They say the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees them, not state gambling law.
Commission member Ann Jacobs defended the rule during the July meeting. She said voters should choose candidates based on merit, not personal profit.
A Broader Legal Fight
This warning is part of a wider legal battle in Wisconsin. The state sued Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhake, Coinbase, and other companies in April.
Robinhood, Coinbase, Kalshi and Polymarket are all named in that case. Wisconsin claims these companies are running illegal gambling operations.
The federal government responded a week later. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Wisconsin, saying federal law gives it authority over these contracts.
A separate case involves the Ho-Chunk Nation. The tribe claims Kalshi’s contracts violate its gaming agreement with the state.
The Commission said many residents may not realize prediction market trading counts as betting under this law. Staff wrote that voters could face felony charges without knowing the risk exists.
Wisconsin has not set a date for resolving any of these lawsuits. Prediction market companies continue operating in the state while the legal fights move through the courts.
