TLDR
- Kalshi faces key hearings July 10 in Washington state court and the Ninth Circuit over sports event contracts.
- Connecticut and Tennessee have reply briefs due July 8 in their prediction market lawsuits.
- North Carolina may become the second state to tax prediction market revenue if Governor Josh Stein signs the budget.
- The USMNT’s win over Bosnia drew 33 million viewers, fueling more sports betting and trading activity.
- Kalshi and Polymarket have crossed $1 billion and $4 billion in World Cup trading volume respectively.
Prediction market lawsuits are moving forward on multiple fronts this week. At the same time, World Cup betting and trading volume keeps climbing as the tournament reaches its knockout stage.
Two hearings are set for July 10 in the Kalshi legal fight. In Washington state, King County Superior Court will hear the state’s request for a preliminary injunction against Kalshi’s sports contracts.
Kalshi had tried to keep the case in federal court but lost that effort. The case was sent back to state court, while a separate appeal at the Ninth Circuit is still pending.
That same day, the Ninth Circuit will hear a different case. Three California tribes are appealing a ruling that dismissed their claims against Kalshi.
A federal court had ruled last year that the Commodity Exchange Act overrides the tribes’ state law arguments. The Ninth Circuit also denied a request to combine this appeal with a related Nevada case.
Filing Deadlines Add Pressure in Connecticut and Tennessee
Connecticut’s reply brief in its case against the CFTC is due July 8. The state had asked a court to dismiss the CFTC’s lawsuit, and the agency responded last month.
Tennessee also faces a July 8 deadline for its reply brief at the Sixth Circuit. That case is combined with a related Ohio lawsuit, and oral arguments are scheduled for July 30.
North Carolina could join the legal fight next. The state budget includes a 6% tax on prediction market trading fees, and Governor Josh Stein has until July 12 to sign it, veto it, or let it become law.
If signed, North Carolina would become the second state after Illinois to tax prediction market operators directly. That step could invite a legal challenge similar to ones filed in other states.
Congress keeps adding to the pile of prediction market bills. The latest, called the No Profiting from Public Service Act, would stop federal officials from trading on political event contracts.
World Cup Drives Record Betting Volume
Soccer viewership is also shaping betting activity. The USMNT’s knockout win over Bosnia and Herzegovina pulled in 33 million U.S. viewers, and the team played Belgium on July 6 for a quarterfinal spot.
Odds for the tournament favorite are shifting too. Argentina has moved into second place behind France on trading platforms, passing England and Spain in recent weeks.
Trading totals reflect the growing interest. Kalshi’s World Cup markets have passed $1 billion, while Polymarket has topped $4 billion in tournament-related trading, making this World Cup the most-traded sports event on record.
Sweepstakes casino platforms are pulling back in some states. Indiana’s ban took effect July 1, and Maine’s ban starts July 15, pushing more operators to restrict access ahead of that date.
Traditional casinos are watching holiday travel for demand clues. Las Vegas visitation is up 2% this year, and Atlantic City casinos have posted revenue growth in nearly every month of 2026.
