TLDR
- CBRE Credit Research says Wynn Al Marjan Island could cut Wynn’s lease-adjusted leverage to 5x.
- That would be an improvement of more than 1x from CBRE’s 2026 forecast.
- Fitch and S&P Global rate Wynn BB-, while Moody’s rates it B1, all below investment grade.
- The resort’s debt is non-recourse, so lenders cannot make claims against Wynn Resorts itself.
- The UAE resort, in which Wynn holds a 40% stake, is set to open in September 2027.
Wynn Resorts is three rating steps away from investment grade. A new credit report says its first Middle East resort could help close that gap.
CBRE Credit Research analysts Colin Mansfield and Connor Parks laid out the case in a report published Monday. They said Wynn Al Marjan Island in the United Arab Emirates could help the Las Vegas casino operator cut its debt load and qualify for credit upgrades.
The analysts said Wynn’s lease-adjusted leverage could fall to 5x after the resort opens. That would be an improvement of more than 1x from CBRE’s forecast for 2026.
Where Wynn’s Ratings Stand Today
Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings both rate Wynn at BB-, while Moody’s Investors Service rates the company B1. These come from the three major agencies that grade corporate debt.
All three ratings are below investment grade. That means Wynn must pay investors higher interest rates when it sells debt, which raises its interest costs over time.
Each agency has a leverage level tied to a possible upgrade. Moody’s uses a 6x leverage qualifier for Wynn, so the company could become a candidate for an upgrade if it reaches that figure.
Fitch and S&P Global use a lower 5x threshold for Wynn. CBRE’s forecast of 5x leverage after the opening would put the company at that level for both agencies.
The climb to investment grade would still take time. From BB-, Wynn would need three rating increases to reach BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating.
How the Resort’s Debt Is Structured
Wynn holds a 40% equity stake in Wynn Al Marjan Island. CBRE described the project as essentially majority owned by the government.
The resort’s debt is non-recourse. If the project runs into financial trouble, lenders can make claims against the resort but not against Wynn Resorts itself.
This setup affects how Wynn’s leverage is measured. The company could count the resort’s contribution to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, while leaving the project’s debt out of its consolidated leverage.
“We believe most of the investment community will incorporate the reported cash inflows from Wynn Al Marjan Island into Wynn EBITDA, while not consolidating any portion of the project-level debt,” the analysts wrote.
CBRE also pointed to Wynn’s spending plans. The analysts said the company should enter “a prolonged period of lower leverage and robust free cash flow without any meaningful development capex on the horizon” once the resort opens.
Wynn’s stock has been pressured this year by the war in Iran. Some analysts have argued the market is giving the company almost no credit for the UAE project’s potential.
CBRE has previously said the resort can still open in 2027 despite the conflict. Wynn Al Marjan Island will be the first casino resort in the Middle East.
The resort is scheduled to open in September 2027, about 10 months from now. Wynn’s leverage figures after the opening will show whether the company reaches the 5x and 6x levels that the rating agencies use for upgrades.
