TLDR
- Google updated YouTube’s ad rules on October 30 to allow personalized gambling ads in the US, Canada, and the UK.
- Prediction market ads were not part of this expansion and remain limited to the United States.
- Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio are excluded from prediction market advertising.
- Advertisers must hold a CFTC license as a Designated Contract Market to run these ads.
- Kalshi, a leading US prediction platform, can keep advertising in approved states.
Google has widened where personalized gambling ads can run on YouTube, but prediction market ads are not part of that change. Those ads remain limited to the United States, and five states are still off the list.
Platforms such as Kalshi can keep advertising to viewers in approved states. However, any company in this category must hold a specific federal license before its ads can appear.
Five States Remain Off Limits
Under YouTube’s rules, prediction market ads may only run in the United States. Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio are excluded from that permission.
Advertisers must also hold a valid license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The license must be for a Designated Contract Market, the federal status that allows a platform to list event contracts.
These rules set prediction markets apart from other gambling advertisers on the platform. Google treats them as their own category rather than folding them into the wider gambling policy.
Kalshi is one of the leading prediction platforms in the United States. The company is known for heavy spending on marketing, and its online ads appear widely in the places where its products are allowed.
The company has built its market share partly through an exclusive data deal with CNBC. It also has integrations with CNN and FOX.
What Changed on October 30
A policy update to YouTube’s advertising rules took effect on October 30. It allows personalized gambling ads in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
Personalized ads are shaped around a viewer’s watching habits. They are generally seen as more effective than ads shown to a broad audience.
Google said the update does not weaken its existing safeguards for gambling content. Gambling ads are shown only to an audience group that Google builds itself.
The platform also watches for sensitive signals from viewers. If it detects that a user may be underage or unsuited to a type of content, it will not show certain ads.
Some gambling ads still need Google certification before they can run. These ads must target approved countries, include responsible gambling information, and never target minors.
Problem ads have still made it through in the past. In July, Google paid a fine of $854,250 in Italy linked to alleged ads for illegal gambling on YouTube.
Earlier in October, YouTube loosened other limits on gambling ads. The platform began allowing them in its Masthead slot, the large banner placement at the top of the YouTube home page.
To use the Masthead, companies must meet strict disclosure rules. Their content must also be available only in places where they hold a valid license.
The October 30 update is the latest in a series of changes to YouTube’s gambling ad rules this fall. Prediction market ads remain restricted to approved US states and to platforms holding a CFTC license.
