TLDR
- AIBM policy lead Jonathan Cohen says prediction markets and sports betting lack adequate consumer protections, especially for young men
- About 40% of Americans believe sports are rigged, reflecting a broader collapse in institutional trust
- Cohen warns prediction markets blur the line between gambling and investing, especially when offered on brokerage apps
- The insider trading controversy around Polymarket and the Maduro capture case has accelerated political scrutiny of prediction markets
- AIBM is pushing for age-based restrictions, default spending limits for under-25s, and data-driven guardrails across all gambling platforms
The American Institute for Boys and Men is pushing for stronger regulation of prediction markets and sports betting in the United States. Jonathan Cohen, the group’s sports betting policy lead, laid out his case in a recent interview with Gambling Insider.
Cohen, who joined AIBM in January, is both an academic and advocate. He has written two books on US gambling policy and appeared on PBS and at a Brookings Institution panel on prediction markets.
His central argument is simple. The guardrails on sports betting are weak, and on prediction markets, they barely exist at all.
AIBM’s recent research found that a large share of Americans expect corruption in gambling-related industries. A Deseret News poll found roughly 40% of Americans believe sports are rigged.
Cohen said this reflects a wider erosion of trust in American institutions, not just a gambling-specific problem. But he added that the industry’s messaging about integrity “just isn’t resonating” with the public.
Prediction Markets Present New Risks
One of Cohen’s sharpest criticisms targets prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. He said these platforms blur the line between gambling and investing, particularly when they appear on brokerage apps.
“Someone could come onto a prediction market truly thinking it’s an investment platform, not realizing how gambling-like it can be,” Cohen said.
He pointed to the recent case of a US soldier charged with insider trading on Polymarket tied to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro. That case, Cohen said, has pushed prediction markets past their “honeymoon phase” in the public eye.
Cohen also raised concerns about market manipulation. He cited Polymarket’s derivatives market, including a contract asking whether the market for Jesus Christ’s return would exceed 5%. He called such contracts seemingly designed for manipulation, comparing them to rug-pull schemes in crypto.
The prediction market industry has sought legitimacy through media partnerships and branding itself as “News 2.0.” Cohen acknowledged some utility in using markets as rapid public sentiment indicators, especially around elections. But he said the broader goal of these deals is to normalize the product.
He also questioned the “wisdom of the crowd” argument. The user base for prediction markets is small and skews heavily toward younger men. That is not a representative sample, he said.
What Guardrails Should Look Like
AIBM is developing a set of policy proposals. These include raising the minimum age for prediction markets and sports betting to 21. The group also supports default spending limits for users under 25, similar to what Flutter has implemented in the UK and Ireland.
Cohen wants restrictions on loss-chasing behavior and rapid escalation in bet size. He said the platforms already have the data to identify these patterns but are not required to act on them.
He emphasized that any new rules should be backed by actual consumer data. Right now, he said, much of the prediction market industry is a “black box.” There is little public information on who is trading, how much they are spending, or how market makers are involved.
Cohen called the current set of optional responsible gambling tools on sportsbooks ineffective. “It’s not because we need a better campaign,” he said. “We need to fundamentally change how we think about letting players do whatever they want from the moment they download the app.”
On the political front, Cohen said Congress is most likely to act on insider trading rules tied to national security-related prediction markets. A Supreme Court case could also reshape the legal landscape for prediction markets in the near term.
Cohen noted the formation of a sports betting super PAC as a sign that the industry feels threatened. He described it as “as much a confession of weakness as a show of strength.”
Several states, including Colorado, Maryland, and Ohio, currently have active bills aimed at tightening sports betting rules.
