TLDR
- US prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing growing trade volumes on Australian political events, including elections, Reserve Bank decisions, and even what the PM says in parliament
- Nearly US$500,000 was traded on Polymarket for the Farrer byelection alone, with Kalshi handling close to US$100,000 on the same race
- These platforms operate like financial exchanges rather than traditional bookmakers, letting users buy and sell shares tied to outcomes
- Australian regulators have already moved to block Polymarket and are monitoring Kalshi, but VPNs make enforcement difficult
- Federal wagering reforms are expected but questions remain about whether new rules can keep pace with platforms that blur the line between gambling and finance
Offshore prediction markets are gaining traction in Australian politics, and local regulators are struggling to keep up.
US-based platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have seen growing volumes of money flow through contracts tied to Australian political events. Neither platform is licensed to operate in Australia.
One recent market on Kalshi asked users to predict whether Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would say specific words during question time. Around US$13,000 was traded on that single contract.
The words in question included Iran, Trump, TAFE and tax cuts. It is one example of how granular these markets have become.
Hundreds of Thousands Wagered on Australian Elections
Polymarket users traded nearly US$500,000 on contracts linked to the Farrer byelection. Kalshi handled close to US$100,000 on the same race.
Other markets have covered Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions, unemployment figures and whether Albanese will remain prime minister by the end of the year.
The platforms work differently from traditional betting sites. Users buy and sell shares tied to outcomes rather than placing bets with a bookmaker. Prices shift based on sentiment and demand.
The companies present themselves more as financial exchanges than gambling operations. That framing has drawn scrutiny.
Martin Thomas from the Alliance for Gambling Reform said the growth of prediction markets in the United States had moved fast enough that Australian regulators risked falling behind.
The concern goes beyond gambling losses. Some markets are thinly traded and highly specific, raising questions about the potential for manipulation.
Political speech, central bank decisions and parliamentary moments are now being packaged into tradeable contracts. These are events that have traditionally sat outside gambling markets entirely.
Responsible Wagering Australia, which represents licensed operators, has warned about integrity risks tied to offshore platforms operating without local oversight.
Regulators Respond but Face Limits
The Australian Communications and Media Authority directed internet providers to block Polymarket last year. The agency determined the site was offering unlicensed gambling services.
Kalshi has geoblocked Australian users and says residents are prohibited from trading on its platform. The company says it has no trading activity in Australia and no plans to seek local approval.
But regulators acknowledge the barriers are easy to get around. VPNs allow users to bypass geoblocking with little difficulty.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has been watching the rise of prediction markets in the US. The agency views these contracts as speculative, high-risk products. No operator currently holds an Australian market licence.
Federal wagering reforms are expected to expand powers for blocking illegal gambling websites and restricting transactions to prohibited operators. Whether those changes will slow the spread of prediction markets remains unclear.
Part of the challenge is that these platforms sit between finance and gambling. They use the language and structure of trading platforms while functioning much like betting exchanges.
Unlike conventional sportsbooks, prediction markets can turn almost anything into a wager. An election result, a rate decision, a sentence spoken in parliament.
The trading volumes are still relatively small compared to mainstream gambling markets. But the speed at which these platforms have expanded into Australian political events has caught the attention of multiple regulatory agencies.
Kalshi said it has no current plans to enter the Australian market through official channels.
