Author: Maisie Morrison

TLDR Kalshi and Polymarket are seeking $20 billion valuations as prediction markets experience a gold rush of investor interest Legal uncertainty around sports event contracts is making some investors nervous, with the issue likely headed to the Supreme Court Donald Trump Jr.’s involvement with both Kalshi and Polymarket raises concerns about what happens when the Trump administration ends Democrats are favored at 56% to win the 2028 presidential election, which could shift the regulatory landscape against prediction markets The flood of new companies entering the space draws comparisons to the post-PASPA sports betting boom, where most operators eventually failed The…

TLDR Fully regulated U.S. states see offshore gambling drop to about 38%, compared to 79% nationally States with both online casino and sports betting retain around 62% of market value domestically Betting-only states still lose roughly 74% of gambling value to offshore platforms New Jersey and Michigan lead with domestic capture rates above 70% No U.S. state has fully eliminated offshore gambling activity, but full regulation cuts it significantly The United States has been legalizing online gambling state by state for over a decade now. But offshore platforms still control most of the market. New data from Blask’s 2025 U.S.…

TLDR RLX Gaming has launched its full content library on Fanatics Casino in New Jersey and Pennsylvania The rollout followed a soft launch in Pennsylvania before expanding to New Jersey Top slots like Temple Tumble, Bonsai Dragon Blitz, and The Great Pigsby are now live Fanatics Casino operates across Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia The deal is part of RLX Gaming’s broader push into the North American iGaming market RLX Gaming, an iGaming content aggregator and supplier, has launched its portfolio of games on Fanatics Casino in the United States. The launch brings RLX Gaming’s library of in-house…

TLDR Uruguayan Senator Felipe Carballo has introduced a bill to regulate online gambling through a state-supervised platform The bill would create a National Online Gambling Regulatory Agency with power to grant licenses and audit platforms Users would need to register on official platforms with spending limits and financial transaction tracking Previous attempts to regulate online gambling failed due to opposition from powerful private gaming operators Over 150 illegal international gaming websites are reportedly blocked daily in Uruguay Uruguay is taking a fresh run at regulating its online gambling market. Senator Felipe Carballo has introduced a bill that would bring online…

TLDR Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service issued new guidelines on how bettors must calculate and pay income tax on winnings from sports betting and fantasy sports Winnings are only taxable if a bettor’s net annual profit exceeds BRL 28,467.20, with amounts above that threshold taxed at 15% Bettors must provide a “ComprovaBet” document from betting sites summarizing all their annual transactions A new digital tool has been launched to help bettors calculate their tax liability Taxpayers can pay what they owe in up to 60 monthly installments of at least BRL 200 through the e-CAC portal Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service, known…

TLDR Sweden’s Spelinspektionen ordered Novatech to stop operating in the country after finding it offered gambling without a licence Investigators found Novatech websites automatically assigned Swedish country codes to users registering from Swedish IP addresses Swedish-language websites and video creators were reportedly promoting Novatech’s platforms to local audiences Days earlier, the Dutch regulator fined Novatech a record €24.9 million for illegally targeting players in the Netherlands The Dutch fine could have topped €100 million but was capped at 10% of the company’s global turnover Sweden has ordered Novatech to immediately stop offering gambling services in the country. The decision came…

TLDR Gambling.com posted full-year 2025 revenue of $165.4 million, up 30% from $127.1 million in 2024 Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.30 beat the $0.24 analyst forecast by 25% Subscription-based revenue now makes up 26% of total revenue, up from near zero in 2024 Google core updates in late 2025 hurt organic search traffic, putting pressure on the legacy SEO business The company guided 2026 revenue at $170–$180 million with adjusted EBITDA margins dipping to around 30% Gambling.com reported full-year 2025 revenue of $165.4 million, a 30% jump from $127.1 million in 2024. The company credited its shift toward subscription-based sports…

TLDR An Ohio federal court denied Kalshi’s request to block state regulators from overseeing its sports-based prediction contracts The judge ruled that federal commodity laws do not override state gambling regulations The decision directly contradicts CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s claims of exclusive federal authority over prediction markets Kalshi plans to appeal, pointing to a contradictory federal court ruling it won in Tennessee The emerging split between federal courts creates growing uncertainty for the prediction market industry Prediction markets just ran into a wall in Ohio. Chief Judge Sarah Morrison of an Ohio federal court denied Kalshi a preliminary injunction this…

TLDR Kalshi prediction market traders give Trump a 70% chance of impeachment before January 1, 2028, with over $1.7 million in trading volume on the contract. Short-term odds remain low, with only a 4% chance of impeachment before June 2026 and 13% before January 2027. Traders are also betting on which world leaders might leave power before the end of 2026, with Cuba’s Díaz-Canel topping the list at 31%. Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to grow as tools for tracking political expectations in real time. Despite the high long-term probability, the numbers reflect trader sentiment and can shift…

TLDR Polymarket announced a partnership with Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to build an AI surveillance platform for its prediction markets The system will use the Vergence AI engine to monitor trading activity and detect suspicious patterns in sports markets The platform will include trade monitoring, anomaly detection, prohibited trader screening, and compliance reporting tools The move comes after multiple insider trading incidents on prediction markets, including trades tied to U.S. military and political events The Coalition for Prediction Markets, which includes Kalshi and Coinbase, has publicly distanced itself from Polymarket over past controversies Polymarket has teamed up with Palantir…