TLDR
- Brazil’s federal government announced a total ban on prediction market platforms across the country
- Finance authorities are blocking access to 27 prediction market websites through ANATEL
- Brazilian regulators classify prediction markets as illegal gambling under Law 14.790/2023
- A new CMN resolution starting May 4 will prohibit derivative contracts linked to non-financial events
- Over 39,000 illegal betting websites have already been blocked by Brazilian government agencies
Brazil has banned prediction market platforms in a sweeping move that blocks access to major names like Kalshi and Polymarket. The announcement came during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.
Finance Minister Darío Durigan confirmed that ANATEL, the country’s telecommunications regulator, is actively blocking 27 websites tied to prediction platforms. The platforms are accused of violating Law 14.790/2023, which governs fixed-odds betting in the country.
Durigan said the goal is to protect consumers from financial harm. “It is necessary for us not to allow people to squander their savings on these sites,” he said during the conference.
Brazilian regulators have classified prediction market platforms as illegal gambling operations. While the platforms market themselves as tools for analysis, regulators say users are placing bets on outcomes to earn money.
That, in the government’s view, makes them gambling sites.
Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting at the Ministry of Finance, said the crackdown goes beyond just prediction markets. Government agencies have already blocked more than 39,000 illegal websites operating in Brazil.
The government has no plans to create a separate regulatory framework for prediction markets. Instead, the platforms fall under existing gambling restrictions.
New Rules on Derivative Contracts
The ban was paired with a new resolution from Brazil’s National Monetary Council. Starting May 4, derivative contracts linked to non-financial events will be prohibited.
That means contracts tied to sports results, games of chance, political campaigns, elections, or entertainment events will be illegal. This closes another potential path for prediction market activity in the country.
The resolution targets the financial structure that many of these platforms rely on. Most prediction market companies generate revenue from transactions made through their platforms.
Prediction markets have grown rapidly in recent years, both inside and outside the United States. Kalshi and Polymarket have built global user bases.
But regulators in several countries have started pushing back. Argentina recently blocked Polymarket from operating within its borders.
Industry Efforts Came Just Before the Ban
Just before the government’s announcement, the first Brazilian industry association for prediction markets, ABPred, was launched. The group aimed to bring structure and legitimacy to the sector.
Around the same time, PreviLabel, a white-label provider for prediction platforms, entered the Brazilian market. Both developments suggested the industry was preparing for long-term growth in the country.
Those plans now face a dead end. The combination of the platform ban and the new derivative contract rules effectively shuts down prediction market activity in Brazil.
The Brazilian government has framed the decision as a consumer protection measure. Both finance and betting authorities are aligned in tightening restrictions on financial instruments tied to non-financial outcomes.
Brazil’s government blocked access to 27 prediction market websites and banned derivative contracts tied to non-financial events starting May 4.
