TLDR
- House Oversight Chair James Comer confirmed an active investigation into suspicious prediction market trades tied to Iran and other geopolitical events
- Comer said subpoenas will follow if parties do not cooperate with information requests
- Seven Democratic lawmakers sent a letter citing trades where one trader allegedly made nearly $1 million with a 93% success rate on Iran-related bets
- A U.S. Army special forces soldier was recently charged with using classified information to place prediction market trades
- The Senate has already approved a ban on members and staff participating in prediction markets
The House Oversight Committee has launched an investigation into suspicious trading activity on prediction markets connected to U.S. military and geopolitical events. Chairman James Comer confirmed the probe during a Fox Business appearance on Wednesday.
Comer said the committee is already requesting information from relevant parties. He described the activity as concerning and said subpoenas could follow if cooperation is not forthcoming.
“We’ve all seen those big trades go through hours before something big happens in Iran,” Comer said. “We saw the same thing happen in Venezuela.”
The investigation follows a May 11 letter from seven Democratic lawmakers who formally requested that the committee issue subpoenas and open a probe. The group was led by Rep. Chris Pappas of New Hampshire.
Lawmakers Point to a Pattern of Suspicious Trades
The Democratic lawmakers cited several specific trading patterns in their letter. They claimed a single trader made nearly $1 million with a 93 percent success rate on Iran-related wagers.
They also said 38 accounts netted more than $2 million on February 28 strikes. Another example involved 50 newly created accounts that placed coordinated bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7.
Comer acknowledged that government officials may be profiting from nonpublic information through event contracts. He said anyone doing so “should be held accountable.”
The chairman said his subpoenas “hold up in court” and that most recipients turn over documents without a fight. He framed prediction markets as “uncharted territory” that lawmakers had not anticipated just two years ago.
Comer also suggested that new legislation may be needed. “If we need to make a law and change a law with respect to that, we will certainly do it,” he said.
The letter from Democrats also referenced a recent criminal case. A U.S. Army special forces soldier was accused of using classified information to place trades related to a raid targeting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
Legislative Efforts Gain Momentum Across Government
Pappas issued a press release after Comer’s interview, highlighting the bipartisan concern. He said the public has “a legitimate interest” in knowing whether people with classified access used it for financial gain.
He also argued that lawmakers cannot fulfill their oversight role without knowing who placed the trades in question. This is why subpoena power is considered essential.
Pappas supports the “Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026.” The bill would ban members of Congress and government employees from trading on political prediction markets when they have nonpublic information related to their duties.
The Senate recently passed its own measure banning members, staff, and officers from participating in prediction markets. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on the House and White House to follow suit.
At the state level, the governors of California, Illinois, and New York have issued executive actions restricting state employees from insider betting on prediction markets.
The investigation is bipartisan in nature, with both Comer and Democratic lawmakers expressing concern over the same trading patterns. The committee’s next steps will depend on whether the requested information is provided voluntarily.
