TLDR
- A new study estimates Brazil’s illegal betting market brings in between R$32.9 billion and R$43.3 billion in gross gaming revenue each year.
- Unauthorized operators may cost the government between R$9.1 billion and R$12 billion in lost tax revenue annually.
- Illegal operators control an estimated 38% to 44% of Brazil’s fixed odds betting market, down from 41% to 51% in 2025.
- The regulated market could reach R$54.3 billion in revenue in 2026, up 46.8% from the previous year.
- Moving 5 percentage points of market share to licensed operators could add R$1.2 billion to R$1.3 billion in yearly tax revenue.
Brazil’s illegal betting market could bring in between R$32.9 billion and R$43.3 billion in gross gaming revenue each year, according to a new study. The figures come from the second part of a report called Off the Radar 2.0, Measuring and Combating the Illegal Betting Market.
The report was prepared by economic consultancy LCA at the request of the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming, known as IBJR. Details of the findings were reported on September 26, 2026.
The study also estimates that the government loses between R$9.1 billion and R$12 billion in tax revenue each year because of unauthorized operators.
Illegal Operators Hold a Large Share of the Market
The new figures build on a study released in August. That earlier research found that illegal operators controlled between 38% and 44% of Brazil’s fixed odds betting market.
This was down from an estimated 41% to 51% in 2025.
To measure the size of the illegal market, LCA used these market share ranges along with data from Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service.
From January to July 2026, the government collected R$8.7 billion in taxes tied to betting. Using an estimated effective tax rate of 27.6%, LCA calculated that the regulated market generated R$31.6 billion in revenue during that period.
If growth continues at the same pace through the end of the year, LCA expects the regulated market to reach R$54.3 billion in annual revenue. That would be 46.8% higher than the year before.
Combined, the legal and illegal sides of the market could produce between R$87 billion and R$98 billion in gross gaming revenue in 2026.
Tax Losses and the World Cup
The estimated tax loss of R$9.1 billion to R$12 billion is based on the possible gaming volume of illegal betting sites. The calculation does not include income tax on bettors’ winnings or operator inspection fees.
The study also looked at what would happen if 5 percentage points of the market moved from unlicensed to licensed operators. LCA estimates this shift would bring in an extra R$1.2 billion to R$1.3 billion in tax revenue each year.
The report said raising taxes on legal operators could widen their disadvantage against illegal operators. This could reduce the share of betting that takes place on licensed platforms.
The report also examined betting plans tied to the 2026 World Cup. It cited a survey by Instituto Locomotiva on how bettors expected to behave during the tournament.
According to the survey, 61% of bettors said they planned to wager more during the World Cup than at any other point in the previous year. The report said 26% of respondents expected to bet “much more” than before.
LCA said the share of people betting on sports can rise sharply during major games. This can also increase competition between legal and illegal operators.
The consultancy said authorities should watch advertising, payment methods and the availability of illegal platforms during major sporting events. It said this monitoring should continue after those events end.
