TLDR
- Canadian prediction markets are limited to three contract types: economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends — no sports or elections allowed
- A 2017 ban on binary options with maturities under 30 days blocks the short-term contracts popular on US platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket
- Wealthsimple recently gained approval for forecast contracts, joining Interactive Brokers as only the second regulated platform in Canada
- Polymarket was barred from Ontario after a 2025 settlement, but promotional flyers were reportedly handed out at Toronto Blue Jays games
- Vancouver Prediction Exchange is seeking regulatory approval in British Columbia to build a Canadian-owned prediction market platform
The prediction market boom sweeping the United States has not crossed the border into Canada. Tight regulations and a fragmented provincial system have kept the industry largely locked out.
Right now, Canadians have just one regulated platform for wagering on real-world events: Interactive Brokers’ Forecast Trader. Wealthsimple recently received approval to offer forecast contracts, making it the second. Questrade has signaled it also plans to enter the space but is still waiting on regulatory clearance.
Even with all three platforms running, the Canadian market will look nothing like the US version. Canadian law restricts operators to contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends. Sports, elections, and cultural events are off the table.
Werner Antweiler, an associate professor at UBC’s Sauder School of Business, said the scope is very limited. Antweiler ran an experimental prediction market at Sauder for over 20 years.
“They’re not allowed for events such as elections, cultural and social events, or sports events,” Antweiler told Gambling Insider.
A key barrier is Canada’s 2017 ban on binary options with a maturity of fewer than 30 days. The Canadian Securities Administrators imposed the ban over concerns about fraud and investor risk. That rule alone would block most sports contracts, which typically resolve within hours or days.
Regulatory Structure Splits Along Provincial Lines
Canada’s regulatory framework is fundamentally different from the US system. In the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees prediction markets as derivatives. In Canada, there is no single national framework. Provincial and territorial regulators handle securities through the CSA umbrella.
Johanna Nicholson of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization confirmed this in an email to Gambling Insider. She said prediction markets offered as financial instruments fall under provincial securities rules.
That creates a legal gray zone. Provinces could argue that prediction markets are gambling rather than securities trading, which would shift jurisdiction to provincial lottery authorities.
“Prediction markets are in legal limbo,” Antweiler said. He suggested the issue may eventually end up in court.
In early April, CSA and CIRO issued a joint statement reiterating the rules around event contracts. The message was direct: comply or face enforcement.
Polymarket’s Ontario Troubles and New Market Entrants
The Ontario Securities Commission reached a settlement with Polymarket in 2025 after the company operated in the province for three years despite the short-term contract ban. The deal barred Polymarket from marketing or operating in Ontario for at least two years.
Despite that prohibition, Canadian media reported that people were handing out Polymarket promotional flyers outside Rogers Centre during the Toronto Blue Jays’ home opener. The OSC declined to comment on whether it was investigating.
Alberta is also taking a firm stance. The province will launch its commercial gambling market in July, and its regulator has already prohibited election betting and prediction markets.
On the other end, a company called Vancouver Prediction Exchange is working to build a Canadian-owned platform. VPX is seeking exemptive relief from British Columbia’s binary options ban and plans to run a controlled pilot with CIRO-registered dealers.
Meanwhile, determined Canadians can still access offshore platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket through VPNs. Kalshi’s geolocation tools blocked deposits from a Canadian location during testing, but Polymarket allowed an immediate deposit of $12 CAD with no VPN required.
The Nova Scotia Securities Commission said it has no plans to challenge platforms authorized nationally under CIRO terms, like Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers.
